Political Futures - response to debate (not much)

[riverflush]

Not much response to last night's debate on the political futures market.

The Iowa Electronic Market - Bush dipped slightly but then inched back up towards his previous high, while Kerry has gained but only very slightly.

IEM

On TradeSports, Bush is actually up 0.7 on the day to 65.2, while Kerry is up slightly as well 0.4 to 35.9.

Tradesports


Very interesting lack of bump for Kerry or fall for Bush. Kerry is widely perceived to have done well in the debate, but there was no "big winner" last night...most consider it an effective draw with the public. The current market trends favor that.

Interestingly, the DOW is up nearly 100pts today and many traders believe it's because Bush will maintain his current frontrunner status. If you follow the markets, you will already know this - there is statistically significant movement upward on Bush good news over the past year.

I find all these machinations actually much more interesting than the actual race...but I'm sure that doesn't surprise any of you guys. I'm a market junkie.

[vulturesrow]

Are you in the market business in some fashion? I find it fascinating as well but thats just because I was an economics major in college and was twisted enough to actually really enjoy it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[riverflush]

Yeah - my primary business is commercial real estate development, but I also trade commodity futures and spread options. It's an amazing time, you can do this right from home. No need to actually be on the floor of the CBOT. I do dabble a bit in the DOW, but there is much more risk involved in stock market.

As most 2+2ers here know, I'm much more interested in business than politics, and specifically political party nonsense, but I do follow this election through a speculation perspective. It's interesting as a high stakes battle to me.

Oh, and I also play poker part time...can't forget about that.