Just a data entry clerk (long)
I have been demoted from statistician, to poker player, to computer programer, and now finaly to data entry clerk. I dont like it but I have no excuse, I trapped myself with technology. I dident realize it until just now. The computer guy from Comcast called me up from out of the blue and said "I am going to vegas in a couple of weeks. Could I swing on by and you can tell me everything you know about poker. I have about a half hour between customers so that should be plenty of time and I notice you were playing 50:100 on line when I was up there so I figure you must know how to play cards. If theres any extra time could you show me how to make money with blackjack as well?" I said sure a half hour should be plenty of time to teach you both. This happens to me all the time so I knwe what to do. When he arrived I gave him a copy of Mason Malmuths fundamentals of poker and told him to play some free games on line using it as a guide and that would get him about $10 bucks an hour in a real loose 5:10 game which I told him he could find at Palace station. The heavy smokers pretty much gaureentee a good game. For the blackjack I lent him Beat the dealer and told him to vary his betting between 5 and 15 dollars in a 2 deck game and that should get him about 10 bucks an hour as well. Hey its the best I could do in half an hour.
Then I got to thinking about my poker playing and I was forced to admit to myself that I dont play poker anymore. I decided too share my tale with you twoplustwo types so that you can follow my example or chose to continue playing cards. It all started in to pro sense 2 and a half years ago when I got layed off from my job as a statistical cheminst and thought what the heck why not try to turn this fun hobby into a job. I played 5:10 stud exclusivly up to that point so that seemed like the natural place to start. I studied 7-card stud for advanced players with a vengence for success. It worked slowly I worked my way up to a $35 win rate at the 20:40 games at Mohegan sun. It was a living hell. I left my house every day at 5 am got there at 8am worked my 8 hours (ate at the table) left at 4pm and got back home around 7pm. The 14 hour days where getting to me. I decided I was going to have to quit and go on line. Once on line I found it nessasary to swich to holdem. So it was back to the drawing board at 5:10 I studied every twoplustwo book there was on the subject. Also I could now be came selection as instead of the wide variety of games at Mohegan (1) there where literally hundreds to chose from on line. It was great. I wanted to get better at game selection so I tracked everything I could think of for a hundred hours to see what had the strongest correlation coefficient. It turned out to be % of people seeing the flop in a full game. That was cool, now I could dip into the 10:20 games when > 50% of the players where seeing the flop and have an EV of $30 without ever leaving my house! And then it happened Al released The phycology of poker. What a revelation! Now it has been said that poker is one third statistics, one third logic, and one third phycology. I have an IQ of 142 and so the logic and statistics are a free ride for me, the psychology = hopeless. This changed everything. No need to rely on full games and % seeing the flop any more thats for sure. I bought another computer and set it up right next to my card playing computer. Set up cols for stone killer, rock, mainiac, calling station. Every startting hand revealed went under its proper heading. and formulas for converting them to percentages. Than sorting mechanisems to isolate the players at the tables and befor you knew it game selection was done. Just type in the name of the players at a game have the computer Take the players composite vector directionals from stone killer and bingo a win rate per hour acurate to 3 significant figures independant of limit or number of players. That went on extreamly well for a while but then being an optimization nut I figured why not calculate out which seat is best for a game? So I did. Then I figured why not codify all of the variables in the theory of poker for different types of mistakes players make and the proper counter stratagy? So I did. Then I thought while I am tracking every startting hand and the mistakes made throughout every hand anyway why not do the same for the river so I can maximize that based on players predispositions? So I did that too. Then I got to thinking why not build some artificial intelligence into the program? So I did. I set up several programs in tandom with macros feeding into one another and talking to one another. Then I started programing in Texas holdem for advanced players. Just the startting hands at first. Man that was a whole lot more difficult than I had ever imagined in my wildest dreams/nighmares. First I had to transfer the English into math then to logic (that part wasent bad thats how Mason & David speak anyway) The hard part was getting the program with the playing profiles to correct for changes in the game to alter the starting hands and to learn from the data. For example quantify how strong a player limping in front of you has to be befor you will fold KJ. It takes a lot of data for that sort of thing and even more to get the computer to learn what that optimal point is. Anyhow this programing thing went on and on until one day It dawned on me that the computer program was a better player than me. Its win rate was higher and it never made mistakes. At that point I became a data entry clerk for my computer. I still make improvements as more information becomes available but even as it is I cant beat it. At first it was a bit ego bruising but realistically how could I hope to beat the combined written works of the twoplustwo gang. On the one hand I feel as if I have been demoted on the other hand though there is more money to be made this way.
Warren
|
09-30-2004, 11:11 AM
Linear Mode
