MLB 9/30

MicroBob · #1 09-30-2004, 05:06 AM

MIL +183

MIL +183 - Doug Davis has been exceptional the past couple of months. STL doesn't really care. The game is meaningless. Go with the value.

That's really the only one that struck me. Although I didn't look too closely at a few others. CIN +285 looked interesting....but Aaron harang has gotten clobbered enough lately and Prior has been pretty solid so I'm not sure how much value there is that one.
The fact that the Cubs are trying to grab defeat from the jaws of victory over and over might make it a worthwhile bet.

mrbaseball · #2 09-30-2004, 10:54 AM

In tournament poker if someone goes all in with AKo against a hand like 88 we call it a coinflip. A race. The 88 is actually a small favorite of 55% vs 45%.

But in baseball if you take a .550 team (ie Cubs) vs a .450 team (ie Reds) you have a BLOWOUT brewing! The line will lurch and skew and percolate until the Cubs are -330 favorites! Huge favorires when the percentages we see make them slight favorites at best.

Ah but we have matchups! When Prior atarts for the Cubs they are 11-9 (.550). But when Harang starts for the Reds they are 15-12 (.555). Hmmmm? .550 vs .555? Kinda really sounds like a coinflip now?

I'll admit Prior has been a little better of late but he isn't the same guy as last year and is definitely struggling. Harang has been poor of late but if the last 2 games show anything it's that the Reds haven't quit on the season quite yet. And the Cubs are a trainwreck waiting to happen. Wanna see Hawkins again today in the ninth? I certainly do! But then I'm betting on the Reds with this utterly ridiculous line. The pressure will crush the Cubs as they choke and sputter once again.

+290 for a coinflip? Sounds pretty good to me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Lori · #3 09-30-2004, 02:20 PM

+290 for a coinflip? Sounds pretty good to me

Especially when something like (From memory) four from five or six of their last games have gone extra inning.

Lori

Lori · #4 09-30-2004, 02:21 PM

Aaargh, missed the start!

Looks like you guys have the Lori Jinx running in your favor [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Lori

Billy Baroo · #5 09-30-2004, 04:10 PM

Min +170 Don't have much time to post, but the short version is that +170 is a pretty big dog considering the Twins are starting the vastly better pitcher (Radke). 1 unit.

Lori · #6 09-30-2004, 10:13 PM

Of course, I got on this coin toss in time [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Whine over.

Lori

MicroBob · #7 09-30-2004, 10:55 PM

I didn't get back in time to take CIN. But I agree that the line was pretty ridiculous.
Got gun-shy and shoulda pulled the trigger.

I really didn't see this game as a coin-flip because of how much Harang had stunk lately.
But even if the Cubs win this one "ONLY" 65% of the time you were still getting solid value on a monster line.

Good pick.

I've missed a couple of them now because I also came close to going against Pedro yesterday too.

Lesson - if there's value there...GO WITH IT!!

Thankfully MIL looks good at this point (7-3 in the 8th)....but if I had jumped on the Self-destruction-Cubs train it could have been a REALLY good day.

Oh well, maybe next time!!

mrbaseball · #8 09-30-2004, 11:30 PM

I didn't really see it as a coinflip either. The Cubs shoulda been slightly favored. Like 88 over AK [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Maybe even -150 to -170ish but not -330! I just used the poker analogy because this is 2+2. And we are never all that surprised when AK beats out 88.

Luckily it came in but was once again a fingernail biter. Today I actually had a little more on the moneyline so I was happy once it went extra innings.