MLB 9/28

Billy Baroo · #1 09-28-2004, 05:35 PM

Decided to post my picks after all.

San Diego +131 1 unit
Minnesota +230 1 unit
Tampa Bay +205 4 units
Oakland -262 1 unit

I made all my picks last night, so the lines have changed quite a bit since then.

SD: San Diego is at home and has been playing well recently. Schmidt isn't that much better than Lawrence, not better enough for me to feel this line is right.

Min: I don't think Hernandez is nearly as good as his stats indicate. A key player or two will probably be getting some rest for both teams so I don't expect either team to play their A game. When this happens, I think it gives an advantage to the underdog.

TB: Tampa plays well at home and Boston is very marginal on the road. Halama is a better pitcher than Lowe under normal circumstances... but this game is being played on astro turf. Keep in mind that Lowe gives up more ground balls than any other pitcher in baseball by a wide margin. On the rug this means a lot of grounders that are typically outs will scoot through for singles. Also, look for a lot of errors by the Sox infield... the books should hang an over/under on the number of errors Mark Bellhorn will commit. Tampa does have a relatively slow rug, but the surface is still much faster than a grass infield. The line has already moved to Bos -183 on this one and is dropping like a rock, so I'm going to catch a big arb tonight.

Oak: This is the biggest favorite I have ever bet. Oakland is playing at home in a huge game and is starting their best pitcher. Seattle is terrible, plays even worse on the road, and is starting a pitcher who is scrubby even by The Mariners low standards. I only bet big favorites when everything is perfect... and in this case I think everything is. I think Oakland wins more than 72.3% here.

Lori · #2 09-28-2004, 05:48 PM

Decided to post my picks after all.

Thankyou.

I'll try to have a little look before the later ones start but have a lot on for the next couple hours.

Lori

Lori · #3 09-28-2004, 06:15 PM

Love this one.

A key player or two will probably be getting some rest for both teams so I don't expect either team to play their A game. When this happens, I think it gives an advantage to the underdog.

Although I go more by the stats than you do, I still feel that neither team is going to be giving it their all and having a large dog has to be worth a go.

SD: San Diego is at home and has been playing well recently. Schmidt isn't that much better than Lawrence, not better enough for me to feel this line is right

Agree with everything you say here, but +131 isn't a huge edge and I think SD are worthy of being slight dogs.
Seems borderline but bettable.

The Oakland game is okay, with a big HOWEVER.
Anaheim plays first, and I feel that if they win they could create enough pressure to make this line have a potential downside.

I don't want ANY chance of this going wrong betting such a large favorite, so I'd get a feel for the Anaheim game before betting this.
An Anaheim loss could work even more in your favour.

Lori

Lori · #4 09-28-2004, 10:03 PM

Don't like the Oakland bet, the game will start with them knowing that Anaheim are almost certain to win.

Lori

craig r · #5 09-28-2004, 10:19 PM

couldn't this make the mentality go either way? also, laying 280 is usually not a good idea anyway.

craig

Lori · #6 09-28-2004, 10:31 PM

couldn't this make the mentality go either way?

Yes it could, but when looking for the 'perfect' -250 or so, something that could go either way is added doubt.

Lori

craig r · #7 09-28-2004, 10:37 PM

how does anaheim losing make -270 any more profitable? I think we would agree that the mental effects of this game would not be worth more than 15 cents. But, 15 cents is not nearly as big of a deal in the 250+ as it is in the 100-150.

craig

p.s. i am not trying to argue. i just want to know your reasoning and i think "math" and "strategy" are not discussed enough at 2+2.

Lori · #8 09-28-2004, 10:41 PM

Sorry, was using 250 as an example.

I think Anaheim losing doesn't change much if the original bet is sound, but them winning puts another factor in there, and if I'm betting in the -250 or so range I don't want any factors against me at all.

Didn't mean to change the line, just that if I'm laying big odds I want no uncertainties at all.

If there's a chance of someone losing their nerve, I will wait for a better spot for my big lay.

Lori

Billy Baroo · #9 09-29-2004, 04:23 AM

I think you make a good point that an Angels win adds some uncertainty to the mix, which makes betting Oakland less attractive. However, when I made the bet, I was pretty sure -262 was the best the line would get. I was right about that (one of the few things I have been right about lately), so I don't feel too bad about making the pick early.

Billy Baroo · #10 09-29-2004, 04:34 AM

San Diego +131 scalped SF -130. SF won.
Minnesota +230 bet scratched, game rained out.
Tampa Bay +205 scalped Bos -183. Bos won.
Oakland -262 Loss.

The one time all year I bet a huge favorite and I lose... maybe I deserved it making such a bet. Fortunately, I scalped the other games so that saved me a ton of money.

I think I'm betting too many games. Before I started posting here I typically only bet on 0-2 games per night. I went on a hot streak where I started betting more games, but now I think betting more games is coming back to bite me. Only one game tonight.

AZ -122 and I'm only betting this one because I know I'll be able to scalp it.