Pot Odds and Partial Outs

[warlockjd]

I think I may have been using erroneous thinking in this area.

I use a pot odds chart as follows:

Outs Flop Turn
1 22.3-1 45.0-1
2 10.9-1 22.0-1
3 7.0-1 14.3-1
4 5.1-1 10.5-1
.
.
.
19 .54-1 1.4-1
20 .48-1 1.3-1

Concern 1: Either my chart or my application of it is off. For example, if I have only a gutshot draw on a rainbow non-paired flop, I have always called if the pot is laying me 5.1-1 (and sometimes a bit less if I am sure I can extract multiple bets on later streets).

In my understanding of Ed Miller's book, he mentions a similar situation (5 small bets in the pot on the flop), and says that if you call you are making an unprofitable call.

If my chart or logic is wrong, I am often and repeatedly making egregious -EV decisions. HELP!!!!

Concern 2: Partial Outs. Generally and repeatedly, If I have AKo on a raggedy flop against 1 or 2 opponents, I will call or raise a bet if the pot is laying me at least 3.9-1, counting all 6 of my outs as good. Am I not discounting my outs enough?

I searched for 'partial+outs' and got nothing, so if anyone can recommend a good thread on these topics I would be very appreciative.

Thanks in advance [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Lost Wages]

1. The flop column on the chart that you are using shows the odds of making you hand with two cards to come rather than on the next card. If you calculate your pot odds on the flop and then compare it to odds on the chart you will be making a mistake because you will usually have to pay again on the turn to see your two cards so your flop-to-river pot odds are much worse. You might try using this chart, though I will be the first to admit that it is of limited usefulness.

2. Estimating your effective outs (as opposed to counting them) is really more of a strategy question. You will get more responses if you post this question in the Small Stakes or Micro-Limit forums. I can't give you a general answer because it depends heavily on the number of opponents, opponent tendancies, prior action and the texture of the flop.

Lost Wages

[warlockjd]

Thanks. This brings to mind a flurry of questions. Hopefully someone can help me out. Poker has been my only source of income for over a year and a half.

I thought I totally understood the pot odds concepts but it appears that my understanding of these concepts is so rudimentary that it is sickening. I guess I have had either great game selection or incredible luck.

Questions:

1. The only time I should use column 1 of my chart is in NL when an oppononent goes all in on the flop?

2. Based on your post, I should be counting and properly 'discounting' partial outs on the flop and then using column 2 of my chart for all flop decisions?

[Lost Wages]

1. All-in is one time. Another is determining when you can bet or raise a drawing hand for value. For example, you flop a nut flush draw. Someone bets, 2 people call. You look at the flop to river odds and see that you are about 1.9:1 against completing your flush by the river. You can raise for value getting 3:1 on your raise (3 players will call you raise).


2. Here, use this more complete chart.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Odds:1
Flop Turn Flop
to to to
Outs Turn River River
------------------------------
1 46.0 45.0 22.5
2 22.5 22.0 10.8
3 14.7 14.3 7.0
4 10.8 10.5 5.1
5 8.4 8.2 3.9
6 6.8 6.7 3.1
7 5.7 5.6 2.6
8 4.9 4.8 2.2
9 4.2 4.1 1.9
10 3.7 3.6 1.6
11 3.3 3.2 1.4
12 2.9 2.8 1.2
13 2.6 2.5 1.1
14 2.4 2.3 1.0
15 2.1 2.1 0.9
16 1.9 1.9 0.8
17 1.8 1.7 0.7
18 1.6 1.6 0.6
19 1.5 1.4 0.5
20 1.4 1.3 0.5
21 1.2 1.2 0.4
</pre><hr />

Of course, you must also take into account your implied odds especially on the flop. I suggest that you study "Theory of Poker".

Lost Wages