Is this close?

[ilya]

4-handed, blinds at 250/500
I'm in the BB, and have 1800 left after posting. UTG goes all-in for 1300. Button, the short stack with 925, folds. SB, the big stack, also folds.
The pot is laying me about 2.5:1. I have QTs, which is a 1.5:1 dog against likely push hands according to eastbay's calculations. However, if I call and lose I will be in bad shape; also, the small stack will have less than 1xbb after posting the BB next hand.
Is this at all close?

[Grisgra]

What's an eastbay?

[parappa]

No, this is an easy fold imo. The difference here is the size of your stack. 3.5xbb is a bit deceptive here, because you've already paid your blind, and because you're the 2d stack, and your chip position is more important here. It's kind of like a flush draw that the pot is laying you odds to chase but which costs too much of your stack, only it's a much clearer situation here.

[HC5831]

Don't listen to anyone who says they fold here. They are playing what I call a "not to lose" strategy. You may get ITM more playing weak (ie folding here), but your ROI will be lower, which is the bottom line. I'm constantly amazed at the amount of bad advice given on this forum.

Blinds:
200/500
Stacks:
Big Stack: 5475 (SB)
Hero: 2300 (BB)
UTG: 1300
Short Stack: 925 (Button)

Above are the aproximate stack sizes. You decision is to call 800 into a 2050 pot, giving you about 2.5:1 to call, just like you stated. UTG is desperate to win a pot. He might even had noticed that you've been folding the blinds a lot and thinks the odds that you'll call here in the BB remote. He is likely to push with a lot of hands, possibly any hand.

You are most likely at 50/50 here. Worst case likely 60/40 (vs AKo). Note: I still call here if I know for a fact that he has AKo. You have more than enough odds here to call. If you fold, you greatly lower your chance at 1st, which should be your goal. If you lose you still have 1k w/another ST who is on the BB in 2 hands. There is no guarentee that the ST will go out before the blinds reach you again. He may even play a not to lose strategy, which will force you to fold again next round.

Don't play not to lose. Play to win. Easy call.

HC

[parappa]

I think I agree with most of what you're saying, and especially with the idea of playing aggressively here, but I don't think that you get that much out of it.

Pokerstove gives 42% vs the very generous set of hands AA-22, AX, and any 2 broadway. This is a bit better than 2.5:1, but I wouldn't say that 2.5:1 on a 2.4:1 chance is blinding value. I can get it close to 50% by including KX and QX, but I think that's a bit optimistic.

OTOH, even if the SB gets folded, you still have 1600 chips w/zero chance of busting out, and I frankly don't see your odds of overhauling the big stack being much different at 1600 than they are at 1800, though you are absolutely right that your best chance is to end up at 3850.

Can someone please work the ICM on this?

[edit: before flaming please read retraction below] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove gives 42% vs the very generous set of hands AA-22, AX, and any 2 broadway. This is a bit better than 2.5:1, but I wouldn't say that 2.5:1 on a 2.4:1 chance is blinding value. I can get it close to 50% by including KX and QX, but I think that's a bit optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean? 40% translates to 1.5:1 odds, not 2.4:1.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove gives 42% vs the very generous set of hands AA-22, AX, and any 2 broadway. This is a bit better than 2.5:1, but I wouldn't say that 2.5:1 on a 2.4:1 chance is blinding value. I can get it close to 50% by including KX and QX, but I think that's a bit optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean? 40% translates to 1.5:1 odds, not 2.4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh. I mean that I'm an idiot. HC must absolutely be right here. This is an autocall. I apologize for the previous post.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove gives 42% vs the very generous set of hands AA-22, AX, and any 2 broadway. This is a bit better than 2.5:1, but I wouldn't say that 2.5:1 on a 2.4:1 chance is blinding value. I can get it close to 50% by including KX and QX, but I think that's a bit optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean? 40% translates to 1.5:1 odds, not 2.4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh. I mean that I'm an idiot. HC must absolutely be right here. This is an autocall. I apologize for the previous post.

[/ QUOTE ]

No worries...your original post makes so much more sense, too, if you're talking about a 2.4:1 odds situation. Yeah, in that case I agree that folding is best.

[DCIAce]

I think it's pretty close.

It's not an "auto-call", though. Why do you think of AK as a worst case scenario, HC? QQ is the Worst case scenario, and if you're against AA, KK, or QQ.. you're nearly dead.. JJ, TT, AQ, and AT are unfavorable too.

I think I call here if UTG has been stealing a lot, and fold if not.. I don't think it affects your $EV too much either way, though.. very close one.

[HC5831]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you mean? 40% translates to 1.5:1 odds, not 2.4:1.


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Doh. I mean that I'm an idiot. HC must absolutely be right here. This is an autocall. I apologize for the previous post.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, it's cool bro. I'm glad I didn't offend you with my strongly posted post. I just wanted to make it clear that this situation is a clear call. It pisses me off when I see fold posts to this situation. As the odds close to 2.5:1, folding gains equity.

HC