Fold to Turn Aggression in Large Pot

skirtus · #1 09-25-2004, 08:42 AM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 caps, MP3 calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (15.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, Button folds, Hero ??

With only 2 outs to beat AK or AA and I'm drawing dead against KK, should I fold here?

Isura · #2 09-25-2004, 09:06 AM

I can't see much wrong with folding here. MP2 is unlikely to raise into so many players so I think he must have some hand. But in such a large field someone must have a K or even a Q on the river could sink you. If you held QQ you probably have to see the showdown, but it's a reasonable laydown IMO.

zuluking · #3 09-25-2004, 10:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see much wrong with folding here. MP2 is unlikely to raise into so many players so I think he must have some hand. But in such a large field someone must have a K or even a Q on the river could sink you. If you held QQ you probably have to see the showdown, but it's a reasonable laydown IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

This advice is wrong. Call the turn raise and check/call the river.

afk · #4 09-25-2004, 11:05 AM

Even if you have only two outs, unless you're up against KK you have the odds to call the raise, do the math. Call the raise and check/call the river. The pot is massive.

Bill Smith · #5 09-25-2004, 11:05 AM

Look at it this way... you're getting 21.5:1 pot odds on your call, and you are 23:1 to hit a jack that probably wins it for you and will definitely get paid off. This is an easy call.

On the river, check and call 1, fold to 2. The pot is just too large to fold unless you're 100% sure you're beat.

Ptolemy · #6 09-25-2004, 11:22 AM

I completely agree with everyones advice about calling here and check calling the river if a J doesn't hit. 21.5:1 current pot odds plus MP1 easily calling the additional bet raising the odds on the turn to 22.5:1 gives you all you need to call here.

I also wanted to address your KK concern. I really can't see MP3 holding KK here. His agression pre-flop and sudden fear on the flop wouldn't suggest it. He would raise his KK (or AA for that matter) to build the pot. I may be way off here but his call on the flop and raise on the turn looks like AK or a loose KQ play.

skirtus · #7 09-25-2004, 01:43 PM

Im still fighting these weak tight tendencies

Turn: (15.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, Button folds, Hero folds, MP1 calls.

River: (22.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 25.50 BB
Main Pot: 25.50 BB, between MP1, MP2, MP3 and UTG+1. > Pot won by MP2 (25.50 BB).

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 doesn't show.
MP1 has 4c 9c (one pair, nines).
MP2 has Kc Kd (three of a kind, kings).
MP3 has 4s 9s (one pair, nines).
Outcome: MP2 wins 25.50 BB.