baseball 9/21

[MicroBob]

ML on Seattle is tempting but not enough value in the line and Moyer scares me.


I'm taking the ML on ARI at -120 though.
Big Unit is pitching better and better. Hope is offense shows up for him while he's on the mound.
Estes is 14-7 but looking iffy of late. 9-10 hits allowed in 3 of his last 6 starts (2 of which were on the road). 4 or more walks in 3 of his last 6. It's easy to excuse his high-ERA on the Colorado altitude.
He was 13-4 a few weeks ago but is 1-3 (his team is 1-5) in his last 6 with only 1 really strong start in there.
I haven't seen him at all so I'm just going on the numbers. If I whiff on this one then so be it...but it sure reads like a struggling pitcher to me.


Under 9 on BSN-BLT looks good to me. Even if Boston scores 6 or 7 there is a decent chance Schilling can hold Baltimore to 2 or less.


I'm getting gutsy and taking the over on LA-SD.
7.5 just looks too low to me.
I know it's Petco which is a pitcher's park.....but Eaton's last 4 starts at home have been reasonably high scoring finals (7-3, 2-8, 5-7, 3-12).
The big concern is that Eaton-Weaver last week in LA was 3-0.


Again - I'm a total novice at this....so lets see how badly I get killed on my picks.

[MicroBob]

the ML on ARI just moved to -122 before I could my bet in so it looks like someone out there agreed with my thinking.

the other books i'm looking at have it at -125 and -130.

[MicroBob]

looks promising for me today.

AZ-COL got rained out

BSN-BLT easily made the under. It was 1-0 after 8 innings and finished 3-2.

SD leads LA 4-2 in the 5th so I just need 2 more runs to make it on that one.

(edit - SD just scored 3 more in the 5th to make it 7-2....clearing the over of 7.5 mid-way into the game)


SEA leads 5-3 in the 5th so it looks like the ML on that one would have been decent too but I stayed away from it.


I have to brag on the rare occasions where I actually get something right to make up for all those times where I completely embarass myself!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Smackdab]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to brag on the rare occasions where I actually get something right to make up for all those times where I completely embarass myself!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Good day!

Give ya credit for laying it all out there. I post in the hopes of getting a different read on my analysis of the games or perhaps picking up some info I don't have. I'm not much of a baseball bettor myself...perhaps Mr Baseball could give his views on your posts. He seems to be very knowledgeable when it comes to handicapping baseball.

Good Luck!!

[MicroBob]

I am laying out some of my crazier opinions exactly for purpose of getting them shot down.
I want to learn....so when anyone thinks I've done something right or wrong then feel free to tell me.

I'm a total amateur at this and don't put much effort into it....but I enjoy it, and have been doing very well at baseball so far...but over a stretch of just a couple of weeks it's possible for a drunk-monkey to come up with a few winning picks so I hardly consider myself good at it.

I think I have a better chance of succeeding in baseball than NFL.

I have a decent shot at succeeding in some NCAA football (I'm familiar with the MAC...and the lines can get way out of whack in a mid-major conference that not many are familiar with).

If the NHL has a season I would have a reasonably chance of picking some underdogs with decent value.

Anyway, I'm enjoying it....and am VERY welcome to the most violent of crticism (which is exactly why I laid it out there on the PIT-MIA game upcoming).