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#1
04-02-2002, 04:47 PM
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Common Sense Statistics Problem
I recently read a statistic that seems counterintuitive to some people but shouldn't be to those who can think straight. When I quizzed others at my poker table only one player got it about right. Though the question isn't about poker I believe good poker players should be able to deduce the approximate answer. At what age is an American even money to die within one year? In other words if you are told that a randomly picked person is x years old and you have no other information, you can predict the chances that the person in question will live more than a year from that point. (eg 62 might be 98%) How old does that person have to be before his chances drop to 50%? Please reply only with a number and nothing else, for the time being. It spoils things if you include an explanation. 
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#2
04-02-2002, 04:50 PM
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130? *NM*
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#3
04-02-2002, 05:08 PM
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87 *NM*
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#4
04-02-2002, 05:18 PM
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120 *NM*
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#5
04-02-2002, 05:21 PM
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x + 1 *nm* *NM*
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#6
04-02-2002, 05:27 PM
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Re: ~80 *NM*
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#7
04-02-2002, 05:27 PM
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125?? anything over 105 is awfully delicate/flat *NM*
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#8
04-02-2002, 05:55 PM
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104 *NM*
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#9
04-02-2002, 06:21 PM
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49 *NM*
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#10
04-02-2002, 06:23 PM
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Any Age *NM*
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Linear Mode
