Attention Math Maniacs, $100k prize

here is a contest with a cash prize for any of you feeling particularly genius like.

My suspicion is that these bodacious folks, if they are any good at math, could already tell you the expected number of processor cycles it would take to X-ray a set of one or more candidate seeds out of that mess. The only question is, will $100,000 lure enough processor cycles, rationed cleverly enough, for someone to get lucky? I suspect the answer to that is already known, something like a 1 in 6 million chance, where only 300 will even try.


That having been said, they don't look very random to me. Whatever they're hiding, it hasn't got a lot of original detail.


Also, in case it's not obvious to someone, I don't have the first idea what I'm talking about.


eLROY

good post, but for goodness sake, don't let eLROY know about this contest or we will have to plough through another ten pages of his calculations

I have a hypothetical question. If I have a drawing hand with 4:1 odds (against) making, and pot odds are 4.5:1, theoretically, doesn't it only make sense to call if my draw is to the absolute nuts? If I make my draw, and it only makes me a 2:1 favorite to win, wouldn't I need to adjust my pot odds up to 6:1 or better to make the call (as a third of the time I will lose the hand even when I make it)? Secondly, how does one determine odds on whether they are a 2:1 favorite, 6:5 favorite, etc.?

i think you are right to a certain degree, but i think that as long as you are getting the correct pot odds for the draw then the "favourite hand" odds "take care of themselves" on the river bet in limit poker


imo, apart from the knowledge of opponents' play factors, you should only try to make the next draw in the hand if you think that if you do make it you will win with it, unless, as you imply, you are getting far better than the necessary minimum pot odds


if you are thinking that if you make the draw and will be beaten anyway, i would say it is normally ludicrous to waste money trying - for example, if you have T9s with a centre of AK32r against three opponents if you were getting only 7 to 1 i would think that everyone would fold without a flinch, (except dave in cali, of course, who would raise)


problems may come when you have Tc9c and the centre is 8h7h3s2d


from the betting you may think you have the 8 outs on the river to make your straight and the pot is giving you your necessary 4.75 to 1 to call


the river falls as the Jh and someone comes out betting


now you have to decide whether your straight is up against a flush


if you "knew" you were up against two hearts before you paid for the river then you would have needed to have been receiving 6.7 to 1 for your 6 outs to make your completed hand good


so the difference between the 4.75 to 1 and the 6.7 to 1 is really the answer to your question - you have to believe what you are drawing to will win if you get it - you wouldn't have paid $10 to draw if there was only $47 in the pot but you would have if there had been $67 - if the pot was $67 and you paid your $10 and then hit the Jh you can happily (?) fold to the river bet because you have already got your odds to get to that position


but then, of course, you will be facing a new situation - is it worth paying $10 to maybe win an $87 pot? (you didn't really "know" your opponent had two hearts) - if you think it is, then you didn't need a $67 pot to call the turn bet!


so back to the first calculations - if you know you will call a possible flush's bet if you get your straight with the third flush card, you only need a $47 pot to pay for the river card


which would mean that you are prepared to pay $10 to maybe win a $67 final pot - which is where the "favourite hand" odds come into play

Hell, if you just put aside an afternoon and solve that pesky "P=NP?" problem, you can net yourself a cool $1M. [img]/images/wink.gif[/img] I think the Clay institute is the name of the establishment offering the prize...there's maybe a half dozen other "1.3 billion mathematicians have been driven crazy over this" problems with the same award.


2ndGoat