Line moves I don't understand (week 2)

[NoChance]

(Lines from Canbet)

Wash -3 (+105) NYG +3 (-120)

According to Wagerline.com, 73% are picking Washington but the juice keeps going up as if people are picking the Giants. It's almost as if Vegas wants money on Washington this weekend. I will probably put something on the Giants even though I don't like it at all.

Den -3 (+100) Jax +3 (-115)

See comments from Was/NYG game. 69% of the public on Denver but juice goes the other way. I already had Jax pegged as one of my picks.

Indy -1 Tenn +1

This line movement looks similar to the Minnesota game last week. 69% on Indy and the line keeps moving in thier favor. I originally liked Tennessee but in this game but may change my mind.

Sea -2.5 (-115) TB +2.5 (+100)

69% are on Seattle. We had this talk last week about 3 being a magic number. Why are they moving the juice and not the line? Why in this case don't they move it to -3? Take TB?

I just wanted to get this stuff on record BEFORE the games this week so you can see what I look at with line movements. Please comment on the above games. I am looking for comments/reasons why I am seeing what I am seeing. It just seems like they (Vegas) are inviting bets on the away teams above (except the Indy game where the line is actually moving with public perception).

[anatta]

It seems to me that if the books aren't moving the line, but all the money is going on one side then betting the other way (with the books) would be the smart thing to do.

Since you have some experience with this, does betting against the money show a profit historically? For example, if you were to bet against the money trend in the top three games each week for the last say 5 years or so what the results would be?

[NoChance]

I don't have a database to look up that information for the past 5 years or so.

Take the Washington game for example. Even the picks here in this forum match the numbers I am seeing at Wagerline. 16 people have picked Washington as oe of thier picks and only 2 have picked the Giants. Yet, the line doesn't move. Okay, maybe it's because it's set on three. It still does'nt explain the juice. The juice keeps rising on the Giants side. It almost looks like Vegas wants money on Washington. Can anyone give an honest reason for the juice movement?

All I know is, if this does not change by the time I wake up tomorrow, I will be adding the Giants and Bucs to my plays. I already have Jacksonville and will probably stay off Indy. I just don't like it. I liked the Titans when they were favored by 2.5, and I know I should be happy with the extra points, but the movement just scares me too much.

[Jimbo]

Are the percentages you list money or number of individual bets? This makes quite a bit of difference.

Jimbo

[NoChance]

Individual bets.

FYI, the Sea/TB line went to -3 as I expected so staying off that one.

[Jimbo]

In that case your logic is reverse. Noone cares how many people bet one side or another, what matters is the amount of money bet on each side.

Jimbo

[Slacker13]

[ QUOTE ]
It almost looks like Vegas wants money on Washington. Can anyone give an honest reason for the juice movement?

[/ QUOTE ]

They are baiting people to take washington. Offshore casinos and las vegas bait the general public all the time.

[ QUOTE ]
16 people have picked Washington as oe of thier picks and only 2 have picked the Giants.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is the books goal, they expect that the NYG is a strong play and are going to take the risk they are correct.

I play lines moves often but line moves are only good when you know who is moving the line, right now it's 1.5 hours before kickoff and the line moves do not mean very much to me, it's the line move just before kickoff that I am interested in, thats when the sharpies come in and lay the big money is just before kickoff. I can guarantee that more often than not if you hold a wager for lets say Washington -3 and that line drops to wash -2 or -1.5 just before kickoff you are most likely holding a losing ticket becasue the line just moved against you. It takes don best software to get these line moves but it's not a cheap sevice but is however worth every penny.

[blownheadgasket]

Another reason is - the book is very wary of moving lines off key numbers late in the week. Anyone with wash -3 early would love to get the Giants +3.5 - sure you eat the vig if you split but 3 is a key number and its these minor edges that guys look for.

[Slacker13]

When you say

[ QUOTE ]
Even the picks here in this forum match the numbers I am seeing at Wagerline. 16 people have picked Washington as oe of thier picks and only 2 have picked the Giants. Yet, the line doesn't move.

[/ QUOTE ]

it is similar to picking up a tell in poker, the oddsmakers are giving you information here, you just need to trust your instincts and bet accordingly. I posted Atlanta as one of my plays this week solely because it smelt like a trap. I may be completely wrong, STL IMO is a better team but I've been doing this for along time and many plays are based on your instincts and finding those little tells from the oddsmakers, so if what your read is correct, and I think you are you should be betting NYG's.

(This post has been sitting open since before kickoff, just to let you know I am not replying now because NYG is winning, I just got very busy with my own betting)

[NoChance]

These would be 6-0 now after two weeks. TB doesn't count because line moved.