Finding Exact Odds: A Simple Technique

To David Sklansky


From your lost essays, Finding Exact Odds, published in the Card Player about ten years ago you stated the following:


A shortcut method that gets you the right price even quicker is to multiply the number of fifth street wins times the number of of fourth street cards that would result in that number of wins.

In this example:

2 X 43 = 86; 3 X 4 = 12; 1 X 0 = 0; 9 X 10 = 90;

30 X 2 = 60

Add these results to get 248. This number you divide by 1980. The answer is 248/1980 or 12.53 percent. The exact odds are 1732 to 248.


My question is, how was "1980" derived?


If you would like a complete copy of the article, I will be happy to send it to you.


H. S. Rosenblatt

haros@concentric.net

45 * 44 = 1980

where 45 = the # of unknown cards after the flop, and 44 = the # of unknown cards after the turn.


45 = 52 cards in the deck minus 3 on the flop

- 4(2 in each hand)


This is a weighted average of wins on the river given the turn cards that could come.


Thank you for your help, Bill E.

because what I want to do is compare my chance of win to the pot


I want pot odds vs drawing odds


if I have on 12.53 % chance of a win, then I don"t want to gamble


whereas if pot odds are 24 to 1 while drawing to 8 to 1 odds sure makes it different

1980 is derived from (45)(44),45 being the number

of cards remaining in the deck other than the five at the river, and your two in hand.


perfidious