Week long tilt?

Costanza · #1 09-17-2004, 01:36 AM

Some history -- lost my first $100 online messing around having fun playing tournaments. I then decided to get a little more serious and have since read SSHE, Hold'em for Advanced Players and Tournament Poker for Advanced Players. I put in another small bankroll and started playing 1/2, then 2/4 then 3/6, all fairly successfully without any losses which were significant.

Then I had one horrendous day where I basically lost it all, and I trace it back to a session where I only played 8 out of 78 hands. 2 of those were AKo in the BB which folded around to me (didn't even get to bet them). And -- what really sticks out for me -- losing with AA twice in a row to rag/rag offsuit after capping the bet preflop.

I haven't had a winning session since.

Here's an example -- I'd just folded KQs to a re-raise preflop only to see the board come out KKT.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, Button calls, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, Button folds, MP2 calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB
Main Pot: 16.25 BB, between Hero and MP2.

Unlucky? Stupid?

Then -- is this just normal variation/to be expected to consistently increase a bankroll about 100BB over a period of 3 weeks, and then lose it all and another 100BB in 4 days?

And more importantly -- if these are the hands that are sticking out in my mind, should I even be thinking about making another deposit?

anatta · #2 09-17-2004, 01:42 AM

I like how you played this hand until the river where I would just call. His play is strange, triple stop n go and all, with a board of KQJ, I would just call. Great raise on the turn.

Evan · #3 09-17-2004, 01:43 AM

You didn't post the results to I don't knwo if you got unlucky. But I don't agree witht the way you played it, I don't dee any way that MP2 didn't flop 2 pair. When he leads the turn I call him down.
Also, 1/2 goes in Micro.

Monty Cantsin · #4 09-17-2004, 01:45 AM

I put the opponent on 46. Face it, you were outplayed.

/mc

bisonbison · #5 09-17-2004, 01:46 AM

Here's an example -- I'd just folded KQs to a re-raise preflop only to see the board come out KKT

Did you raise and then fold to a 3-bet? Or was it raised ahead of you and you folded? Cause 1 is bad and 2 is good.

Evan · #6 09-17-2004, 01:48 AM

Why do you like the turn raise? Stop and go form almost always means that he opponent can beat a pair.

anatta · #7 09-17-2004, 02:32 AM

I dont agree that usually the stop n go means that his opponent can beat one pair, as usually two pair will check raise. Its common when the second flush card comes to see a bet from a pair and a flush draw. I liked the raise to force out the other player in this big pot. Even if his opponent has two pair, hero has 12 outs to beat it (right? I am not looking at the board but he has a gutter and overpair?), most two pairs will be scared of a set on this board (KQJ vs preflop raiser), so if hero raises, he won't get three-bet. Even if I was 60 percent sure opponent had two pair, I would still raise, but take a free showdown if I didn't improve.

Evan · #8 09-17-2004, 02:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if his opponent has two pair, hero has 12 outs to beat it

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but you also have to consider the reverse implied odds of not knowing what 8 of those outs are (half of the board card pairing give Hero a better 2 pair, but half give his opponent a boat).

[ QUOTE ]
most two pairs will be scared of a set on this board

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a fairly optimistic idea. I'd bet that most people that play on Party couldn't remember who raised PF by the time they get to the turn.

me454555 · #9 09-17-2004, 03:05 AM

Why did you raise the turn? What did you put you're opponent on?

Why did you raise the river? what did you put you're oppoennt on?

Looks like you might have lost to 2 pair. With a flop of KQJ, theres a lot of 2 pairs that you could be behind, (KJ, KQ, QJ) You could also be up against a strait (9T) which the guy played passively. I think you cost yourself 2 bbs you didnt have to.

On a different note, if you moved up from 1/2-3/6 w/out any significant losses you haven't played enough hands at each level. Downswings are a part of the game. Any good poker player who hasn't experienced one isn't a good poker player.

How big is you're bankroll for 3/6? The games can get fairly aggressive so have at least 300bbs and possibly more.

anatta · #10 09-17-2004, 03:09 AM

Even if his opponent has two pair, and even if his opponent will three bet the turn with his two pair, if AA can get the button to fold a hand that is drawing live and/or clean ups some outs, and AA can correctly fold his unimproved hand on the river after getting three-bet on the turn, getting three bet isn't that big of a deal.

But this of course assumes not only that two pair will three-bet turn, but also that AA is behind here. It takes more than a bullshit stop n go for me to conclude AA no good becuase two pair usually check-raises turn or three-bets flop and lead the turn. Stop n goes are met by me with suspicion and most often with a raise.