Arizona +8?

[jwvdcw]

This was posted over at FBGs. I would like to hear some more thougts on it:

"I'm not saying by any stretch of the imagination that the Cardinals are going to win this game outright, however, I think that they will cover at +8 for a number of reasons:

1) Prior to the game, the Cardinals will be having a tribute to Pat Tillman.

I beleive that the Cardinals are going to be fired up because of this and are going to give their all to win this game for their fallen teammate. Look for the Cardinals to play with alot of emotion this Sunday. They may not be able to win this one, but I believe that they will keep it close

2) Cardinals are tough at home.

Last season the Cardinals managed to beat the Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Vikings at home outright, while playing close games against Carolina, Baltimore, and St. Louis.

The Patriots really have no preparation for the 100+ degree weather that they are going to be facing here in the desert. Look for some of the Patriots players to become dehydrated or cramp up during the game.

More information will become available in the upcoming days, am I insane or can the Cardinals really cover against the defending Super Bowl Champs? "




Also written there:

"I think you are ignoring LOADS of precedent that includes Super Bowl winners on the road the following year, the Patriots inability to beat anyone by more than 6 points on the road last year (except, coincidentally, Philadelphia in week 2), and the above mentioned AZ ability to keep it close at home.

The Pats are not a team that is designed to blow folks out. If they go up by two TDs points against AZ they will get super conservative, not score much more, try to work the clock, and will ultimately allow AZ to climb back into the game."






Some more:

"In addition to the anti-superbowl teams theory (1-0-1 so far ATS this year), home dogs of 7 points or more have been gold over the years. Also, favored road teams coming off of a home win let down some too (mainly the defense, as a lot of these games go over the total).

As always, these are past trends, which could change at any moment.

But there seems to be a lot of them going against the Patriots this week. "



Even more:

"AZ is definitely a good play here. AZ lost only one game at home last year by more than 8 points. They beat Green Bay, Minnesota, SF and Cincy at home and lost to Carolina and St. Louis by just 3 points. Now that I think about it, the only inter-divisional home game they lost was to Baltimore. Maybe teams that don’t regularly play there, unlike their divisional rivals, really can’t cope with the heat.

On the other hand, the last time New England won a road game by more than 8 points was in Week 2 last year at Philly. But the perception is that NE is so great and AZ is so bad, that I expect this line to grow another point at least to provide even better value."



And more:

"This game is a massive trap. The line is so low because Vegas knows they can trick average Joe fan into beting that the Pats cover the spread. The reality of it is, the Cards barely lost any home game last year, and probably have a better team as well.

Take the Cards and run. "



link: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum...amp;hl=tillman

[bugstud]

They're overestimating, but rough approx means the line for pats at home would hgave been in the 14 range!?!

I think this line defintately has AZ value to it, but I'm just not sure how much. Might be a good idea to track any juice/line changes over the week to figure out if you want to place the bet on sat.

[Big Al]

I agree with the emotion aspect and I look for the Cards to play tough. Dennis Green is a very solid coach and I usually only play the dogs when they are a home doggie. I think the Cards are the play here, not a super strong play but a solid play never-the-less. Good luck.--Big Al--

[wuwei]

Cardinals are 12-6 ATS vs. top teams in their last 18 games. I'll be staying away from this game, or if they line moves more in favor of the Pats, I'll consider hitting the Cards...

[Slacker13]

I think Arizona is a great play, the Cards have been a great home dog over the past few years and I will continue to ride them. I am playing them along with Atlanta. My college pick is Rice over Hawaii.

My picks for the week are

(COLLEGE)
Rice
(NFL)
Arizona
Atlanta

1-0-0

[CarlSpackler]

Why do you like Atlanta? Their secondary is weak, particularly at the CB position, and the Rams should be able to take advantage of this. Rattay/Dorey combined for nearly 300 yards passing last week, and now we're talking about Bulger throwing to Holt/Bruce. Faulk also looked really good last week, as did Stephen Jackson minus the fumble. I think this being a road game in a dome also favors the Rams here, more than if this game was played on a grass field. I sort of like the Rams getting a couple points here. Have yet to decide if I'm going to play it.

[Slacker13]

It's smells like a trap to me. Vegas is inticing everyone to take STL. Im taking Atlanta only for those reasons.

[Toro]

Arizona +8 is my pick of the week and I'm a big Patriots fan!

[Sundevils21]

This is definatly the first Az Cardinals thread I've ever seen at twoplustwo. I'm in tears. GO BIRDS!!
I hope that the Pat Tillman ceremony before the game is shown on tv.
I've seen so many games that Tillman played in Sun Devil Stadium between 4 years at ASU and a couple with the Cardinals. I had season tickets to both ASU and Cardinals games when I lived there. PAT TILLMAN FOREVER.

[blownheadgasket]

I do somewhat agree with this line analysis. If you usually see -3/-2.5 you think favorite, but a tweener line like +1.5/+2 seems to make the public inclined to play the dog.

Either way I think it comes down to if that number matches up fairly with your number and you see some value.