A bubble simulation (mostly for fun)

[eastbay]

Recently there were some EV calculations posted about $EV for calling all-in on the bubble. The results surprised me a little about how tight it indicated a player should be for calling all-in on the bubble.

So the following simulation is running overnight tonight:

4 players, even stacks at 2500 apiece. Blinds a constant 100/200. All four players move in UTG every time. Three of the players have a given calling standard in terms of top # of hands from the Sklansky-Karlson hand rankings: 10 15 20 30 or 50. Hero plays a counterstrategy of calling with more or fewer hands than the other players, also selected from the same list. The full matrix of possibilities is being run in the following way: play proceeds until someone is eliminated. At this point, the game is stopped and $equity is determined by a chip split (indep. chip model). 5000 tourneys are played out for each match-up.

If hero plays the same strategy as the others, he clearly wins 25% equity in the long run.

So the question is: if others are tight with their calls (say, top 10 hands only), should he loosen up with his calls, or stay tight? How much of an edge can he get? If the others are playing a looser calling strategy, should he tighten up, hoping for others to knock UTG out, or should he loosen up too, trying to pick up his share of double-ups? How much of an edge can he get then?

Results tomorrow. This one is mostly curiousity. I haven't been in too many games where UTG goes all-in every single hand.

eastbay

[chill888]

In a super aggressive game like that I would have though the tighter guy gets a lot of equity by avoiding fights. Is 5000 hands a big enough sample? Looking forward to how chill the rock fares.