Turning a Set on 3-flush Board

[parappa]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed)

CO (t840)
Button (t1248)
SB (t342)
BB (t605)
UTG (t1485)
UTG+1 (t1340)
MP1 (t1595)
Hero (t545)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t50, MP1 folds, Hero calls t50, CO folds, Button calls t50, SB calls t25, BB checks.

Flop: (t175) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t175) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets t75, Hero raises to t570 (All-In), Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t495, UTG+1 folds.

River: (t1240) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1240

[RiverTheNuts]

gotta love that river huh... wtf did BB have??? A5 or 56??? If he had trashy diamonds he shoulda bet out single diamonds on the flop

[parappa]

No, he was slowplaying the nut flush and I sucked out him with the 3. Every time a monster pops up I wonder if I should've seen it coming, so that's the main reason for the post. Should I have bet the set on the turn?

[RiverTheNuts]

I woulda probably min-raised maybe 2x more what the first better did, and if BB had the balls to come over the top of a bet and a raise I think its safe to say you're no good..

Then again you're very short stacked, and a bet like that woulda been begging for someone to go ahead and finish you off... im not sure... if you had a couple hundred more chips I like a small raise, but with the amount of chips you have you dont leave yourself alot of ways to play this that arent pretty transparent as an information raise...

[poboys]

You have ~T500 chips, at T50 so you are going to be scrambling as soon as the blinds go up. You have hit the set on the turn, and even though you are staring a flush flop in the face, I'd take my chance. My goal here, is to get all of his chips in the middle.

So, I'd never raise all-in on the turn. I'd raise his turn bet to say T150 or T175 or something that he'd be much more likely to call. Then on the river push no matter what.

I know this probably sounds stupid (and hell, maybe it is), but chances are if he calls your all in your beat, and if he can't beat you he folds. So, if you are commited to trying to double up, I'd string him along a little bit more.

[parappa]

That all makes sense. Is this a spot that you'd be willing to commit your stack?

[2planka]

I'd prefer a feeler raise here (something to wake up a slow played flush), but given our stack size we're in a bind. We're behind many hands, and the BB could have anything (free flop). I'm no fan of the min-raise, but this may be a spot for it.

It's just that the push seems like desperation to me, and I think it's still pretty early in the game.

The results worked for you, but something about the push feels wrong to me... can't quantify it right now.

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]
That all makes sense. Is this a spot that you'd be willing to commit your stack?

[/ QUOTE ]


A T500 stack with a T50BB yes. If I had T1500 I'd play this a whole lot differently. Your stack and the blinds are the main reason why I would play this aggressively.

Interrested in seeing if others think I am nuts.

[2planka]

I understand the stack/blind issue, but I'm inclined to tone down the aggression given this terrible flop AND the number of limpers AND the underbet to open the turn with others still to act behind.

Something about it just seems incorrect. Clearly you don't call a push here, and the very best you can hope to see when you push is a singleton diamond chasing.

If this is a "take a shot and hope for the best" situation then fine, but I can't see how else this play works. Can someone crunch the numbers (I can't right now - work stuff)? This is a very tricky situation, IMO.

[poboys]

what numbers are you referring to?

Pr(two [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] | 3 diamonds on flop)?
Pr of hitting your full house?

I agree that the number of limpers is a very bad thing, and, honestly really didn't consider it too carefully when thinking through the play.