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#1
09-13-2004, 08:37 AM
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Probablility\'s in hold \'em from Mr. Sklansky. Will he respond?
Allow me to quote from David's book called "hold 'em poker"
ON the very last page before the glossary I found some GOLD NUGGETS! "If you hold a wired pair, you will flop trips or better 11.8% of the time. If you hold AK you flop an A or K 32.4 percent of the time. If you hold two suited cards you flop a flush 0.8% of the time and a four flush 10.9% of the time. If you hold two unmatched cards you'll flop the split two pair 2.02% of the time. If you flop trips, you make a full house or better 33% of the time. Is this assuming a 10 handed game? I am really hoping that Mr. Sklansky himself could respond to this question. I realize now that this reinvents my thinking on certain hands beating me during play when I am "seeing the boogie man" ie. "did he really flop the flush in a 4 handed situation?" NOT LIKLELY according to this piece of information from his book. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] 
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#2
09-13-2004, 09:22 AM
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Re: Probablility\'s in hold \'em from Mr. Sklansky. Will he respond?
Is this assuming a 10 handed game?
You really need to think about this question. All of the probabilities that you quoted are independent of the number of opponents. I can assure you the Mr. Sklansky will not be responding to this post. Lost Wages
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#3
09-13-2004, 09:23 AM
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Re: Probablility\'s in hold \'em from Mr. Sklansky. Will he respond?
Those numbers are assuming you don't know any of the opponents cards, no matter how many opponents you have.
50 unseen cards are still 50 unseen cards even if 12 of them are held by 6 opponents.
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#4
09-13-2004, 09:56 AM
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Re: Probablility\'s in hold \'em from Mr. Sklansky. Will he respond?
[ QUOTE ]
I am really hoping that Mr. Sklansky himself could respond to this question. I realize now that this reinvents my thinking on certain hands beating me during play when I am "seeing the boogie man" ie. "did he really flop the flush in a 4 handed situation?" NOT LIKLELY according to this piece of information from his book. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] You have to play situationally. Just because it is rare to flop a flush if you have 2 suited, doesn't mean that is is rare for one of your four opponents doesn't have one. You need to find out from the betting... Also, the others are right about the independence and the number of hands.. Think of it this way: Consider the 18 cards dealt to your opponents, and you have two cards.. What are the chances one of them has the Ace of spades if you don't? Well, there are 50 cards that you don't know, so the answer is 18/50. What are the chances of the remaining 32 cards in the deck that one of them is the ace of spades? 32/50, right? Now, take one card from the deck, and one card from one of your opponents. Now, what are the chances one of your opponents has the Ace of Spades? Still 18 out of 50, there was nothing special about the one that was chosen.. What are the chances the ace of spades is still in the deck? 32/50... Now, this can all change if there is some heavy action PF.. Now, since there is heavy action, there could be a better chance some one has an ACe.
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#5
09-13-2004, 10:25 PM
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Re: Probablility\'s in hold \'em from Mr. Sklansky. Will he respond?
I make a full house against 10 opponents much more than against 1, what are you talking about.
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#6
09-13-2004, 10:49 PM
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Re: Probablility\'s in hold \'em from Mr. Sklansky. Will he respond?
Right. Another point is that the probabilities apply to YOUR hand. They also apply to any ONE of your opponents hands looked at individually and seperately. The odds don't apply to all nine of your opponents hands and yours in cumulative. That's why the value of hands goes up in short handed games and goes down in full games. JJ against one opponent is strong. JJ against 9 oppoents isn't as strong.
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