New at Betting Sports

[runninonmt]

I just started betting sports with a buddy's site this baseball season. I've been doing pretty well so far; beginner's luck, I guess. I'm ready to start getting into betting football, but I don't know much about it. Where is the best site to learn more about doing this 'correctly'? I haven't really been making very educated baseball bets, but I have a feeling if I go into football the same way that I'll get skinned. Does anyone have any good advice on the best way to go about betting football?? Thanks in advance.

[QuickLearner]

Read the essays at ProfessionalGambler.com. It's J.R. Miller's site and there is probably nobody alive who knows more about football handicapping than him. The essays and articles he posts are worth more than half the library I've accumulated.

FYI: J.R. is a friend of mine but don't read any endorsement into my post that I didn't intend. I neither cap nor bet sports anymore, and I don't advise anyone else to, either. Especially pro football. No amateur will beat pro football linesmakers over the long haul.

Now hockey, on the other hand... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[va_chier]

I disagree the line moves during the week from the squares so value does appear. The market is not effecient because of this.

cheers matt

[tolbiny]

Look at the lines on monday- write them down, then look on suday again. Usually the public is wrong, try to figure out why the big moves happen and if they fall into the right catagories (ie large fan base on one team, small on the other) bet the other way.
Not gosepel, but a decent start as it will get you looking at lines and thinking about why they are set/what makes them move.

[QuickLearner]

Square money normally comes in late (long after the value is gone from the line), especially on network-televised games. I think any value is in finding the situations where the book has set the line to beat the squares.

As far as beating the game, I just don't see the point in spending 4 to 8 hours capping each game in the hope of winning 55% - 60% of your wagers. You have to hit 52.4% to break even. Sometimes you cap all week and only find two or three games where you have a decent edge.

The ball is pointed; you play on an uneven field; the weather; penalties; injuries; officials; at least 25 players on each team who have to perform; too few scoring opportunities.

Too much work, not enough return. Unless you can afford $500 to $1000 per game. God love you for having the desire. I don't anymore.

[shemp]

Pro football is unbeatable. I say that having watched Big Al go .700 or so over the last few years, and even better when he's put special emphasis on a pick. There's a huge amount of luck involved and the vig is such that you are playing against the house. You do begin to see better values if you pay attention, but don't get cocky. Do it for fun. Handicappers in general make better poker players than poker players make handicappers. As Big Al says, you look for things like a home favorite veteran team that needs a good performance against an opponent that played in a very physical/emotional game the previous week and is now likely for a let down -- ie, the intangibles are as least important as matchups, so you need to find a "theory of the game" that considers them.

My $0.02.

[runninonmt]

Who's Big Al?

[va_chier]

[ QUOTE ]
Square money normally comes in late (long after the value is gone from the line), especially on network-televised games. I think any value is in finding the situations where the book has set the line to beat the squares.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont understand. Say Cleveland is playing the ravens and the ravens are favered by -3 on a weds. Now you say that the line is correct with your capping of the game. Now if the line moves to -5 on sun by the squares. That 2 point line move gives cleveland a 5% bonus in value. So alot of value comes from the public. What am I missing?

[QuickLearner]

Your comment is interesting but the situation wouldn't happen. Let's talk in hypotheticals...

First, Wednesday is still early; late means Saturday night or Sunday up to gametime. Second, although you rightly predict that public (square) bets are predominantly on the favorite (and on the over for that matter), I'll bet the line won't move two points once this whole season unless there is some obvious reason like a mid-week injury. Okay, let's assume that it happened.

What causes a giant line move? Maybe the Brown's QB is injured in practice on Friday and is out for the weekend. The book will immediately take the game off the board. I mean within 10 minutes of the injury! They'll make an assessment of the injury's effect on the game, and then maybe repost the game with a new (still sharp) line. The two point difference is of no value.

Now if you got a bet in early and saw the line shift in your favor, its good for you. If you haven't bet yet, what do you do? Lay more points on the chalk, or take the "extra" points on the dog? How is your decision made any easier? I know what I'd do...I'd ignore the side wager and bet the under. And I bet you can see why.

Now if we're talking about a more resonable line move based on the public's hammering the favorite (maybe a half point move) -- and now you're thinking about betting the dog, you're on the right track, but you don't need to sweat all these moves. All you need to do is remember to bet favorites and overs early if those are your favorite bets. If you bet dogs and unders bet them late. If you do that you'll be going against the public about 90% of the time. Just hope they aren't right this time, eh? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[va_chier]

The great debate markets efficiency appears again. You believe for sports betting market is efficient. I come from the angle of behavioral finace so I think the market is not. So for my sake I hope you are wrong [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] We could debate this for days each of us providing data to support our side. So lets agree to disagree. I do value your ideas so thanks for posting.
cheers matt