Goofy Line

mrbaseball · #1 09-08-2004, 05:06 PM

I figured I would inagurate the new board with a baseball post since I'm sure no one else will [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I will never understand the allure of football betting myself. The large vig and the almost perfect lines make it unbeatable in my mind but people flock to it for some reason? I love the game but wouldn't bet on it to save my life other than a few teasers for fun and maybe a small superbowl bet.

Anyway on to serious (ie profitable) issues. Baseball!

The Cubs/Expos line tonight is just goofy. Expos +310 and Expos +150 +1.5 runs are too juicy to pass on. Maddux is pitching well but nobody pitches well enough for this kind of price. Expos aren't all that horrible and in the lower tier of the great gray middle with a .420 winning percentage. The Cubs aren't all that great and in the upper tier of the great gray middle at a .548 winning percentage.

But the Cubs are pressing and the pressure to win is enormous and they are historical choke artists. Montreal is loose as a goose. Plus Expos bullpen has been decent which makes up for some of the starting pitching gap. Once that Cub bullpen gets involved anything goes.

I like both straight and runline here but like the runline the best. When getting the runs the Expos cover 59% of the time and when giving the runs the Cubs only cover 44% of the time and they are paying you +150 to take the 59% chance here!

This is a typical bs line with way too much respect going the Cubs way and absolutely no respect for the Expos. We are getting a nice overlay on this game.

Your Mom · #2 09-08-2004, 06:21 PM

The line is a little inflated, but keep in mind that Maddux has been absolutely dominant of late. I don't have the stats in front of me, but he has been one of the top 5 starters in MLB since the allstar break.

anatta · #3 09-08-2004, 07:12 PM

This did stand out, I am going to pass. I don't think of it as Cubs tightening up, Montreal loose, but rather Cubs know they have to win to keep pace, Montreal playing out the string. Maddox knows what up, I expect him to come through, but price is not so hot. gl.

jwvdcw · #4 09-08-2004, 07:21 PM

quick question: You're a winning MLB bettor...do you only bet on underdogs that you feel are good value? How exactly do you determine 'good value'?

mrbaseball · #5 09-08-2004, 07:55 PM

I bet primarily dogs that seem underpriced. I look at everything. Records, stats, pitching matchups, bullpens, lineups, hot/cold, situation, travel, rest, etc etc etc.

Then I figure what I think the line should be. If the line is skewed one way or the other I make a bet.

mrbaseball · #6 09-08-2004, 07:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maddux has been absolutely dominant of late

[/ QUOTE ]

True enough! He is hotter than a pistol. But at this price I'm willing to take my chances. Cubs -200 to -250 range at best not -350! The price is right for the Expos. Typical respect/no respect play. The ball bounces real funny sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

craig r · #7 09-08-2004, 08:10 PM

i am going to go out on a limb and say MON and OV 7.5.

craig

jpg777 · #8 09-08-2004, 10:57 PM

Montreal 6 Chicago 0.

Good one!

craig r · #9 09-08-2004, 11:10 PM

i guess i never put the cubs getting shut out into the equation. what was i thinking? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

MicroBob · #10 09-09-2004, 03:37 AM

I was celebrating on this one because I thought I had won (came to similar conclusions on my own...just now saw this forum and your post).
Alas, my bet had not gone through somehow.
Crap.

I also had AZ over LA (+310 and casey Fossum has pitched better of late) but the Dodgers pulled it out in the 9th dammit.