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#1
09-05-2004, 10:03 PM
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Ichiro
Will he break the record?
Get this guy a bath, he;s disgusting. -AA 
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#2
09-05-2004, 10:12 PM
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Re: Ichiro
[ QUOTE ]
Will he break the record? [/ QUOTE ] yes.
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#3
09-05-2004, 10:47 PM
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Re: Ichiro
He has a reasonable chance. I saw yestarday's game against the White Sox when he went 5 for 5. He was stunning. Mark Buehrle tipped his hit to Ichiro after he got his fourth hit off of him. He only got 1 hit off of Diaz today.
If he gets 100 more at bats and hits at the same pace (He is at .378) then projected hits are about 37 more. He has 224 hits at the end of today and needs 33 more hits to tie, 34 to break the record. Within reach but not a shoe-in. -Zeno
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#5
09-07-2004, 03:20 AM
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Re: Ichiro
Two more hits tonight. Now his chance of breaking the record is no longer just "reasonable"; it should be a pretty major disappointment if he doesn't do it. As of this writing, he has 226 hits in 597 ABs in 135 games played (137 team games; 2 DNPs). That's an average of 4.4 ABs/game, so with 25 games left (and surely Bob Melvin will play him in every one to give him the best shot at catching Gorgeous George) he would get 110 more ABs. To get 32 more hits for a total of 258, he would have to hit just .291 (his career MLB avg is .339). Of course, there will be the attendant pressure and media attention as he nears the record, which may affect his performance; opposing teams may pitch around him more (although that's unlikely--they're only singles after all); he has also had a history of late-season dropoffs since coming to the majors (some have speculated that's due to his being accustomed to the shorter Japan league seasons). Overall though, I think it's a +EV bet at this point that he'll break the record.
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