#1
|
|||
|
|||
partypoker badbeat
anyone know the probability of this happening?
it's 8888 losing to higher hand both hole cards must be used |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: partypoker badbeat
I'd say about 75%. Watch out for low quads, they are vulnerable to both higher quads and straight flushes.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: partypoker badbeat
oh, so not as probable as me sleeping with your mom last night, which would be about 100% [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Not too much help, but something to think about
a friend told me that he read the odds of beating A's full of (picture card) was about 1 in 16K if all 10 saw the flop and checked it to the river. But in real play, it takes a lot longer since some people throw away potential winning Jackpot hands
So... 1 in (number much bigger than 16K) |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: partypoker badbeat
The bad beat jackpot will probably hit $1 million at this rate.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: partypoker badbeat
Probability of one player (table of 10) having pocket pair 88 or better = 0.276
Probability of one of remaining 9 players having a non-matching pocket pair 88 or better = 0.2355 So, probability of 2 players having non-matching pocket pairs 88 or better = 0.276 * 0.2355 = 0.065 To score a 4 of a kind that beats a 4 of a kind, four specific cards need to come onto the board in 5 cards. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that comes out to: Chance of hitting 4 specific cards = (4/48 * 3/47 * 2/46 * 1/45) * 5 = 0.0000257 And therefore, the odds of 4 of a kind beating 4 of a kind using both hole cards: 0.0000257 * 0.065 = 0.00000167 = 598,707:1 odds I have no idea if that's right or wrong, but it does assume both players go to the river. The calculation for straight flush beating a straight flush or 4 of a kind is far more complicated and best left to a computer, but it is impossible to account for the situations where the potential bad beat hand is lost preflop or on the flop. In any case, it wouldn't shock me to see the jackpot reach half a mil, but I'd guess $250,000-$300,000 is more likely. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: partypoker badbeat
[ QUOTE ]
anyone know the probability of this happening? it's 8888 losing to higher hand both hole cards must be used [/ QUOTE ] Here are some of Brian Alspach's calculations on the probability of bad-beat jackpots in various poker games. He didn't cover the specific case of quad 8's beaten except in Omaha, and he also disallowed quads with trips on the board, which can happen both with quads over quads and a straight-flush over quads. Although the problem looks doable to me now, the most natural technique is to ask Brian Alspach nicely. |
|
|