Coilean and Dcifrths talk theory...

[DcifrThs]

theory question:

if you folded AA every single time you got them at party 15/30 how much would you lose? what % of your win rate?

if you folded KK every single time, how much would you cost yourself? same as above.

finally...what would it do to your variance.

-Barron

[Ulysses]

You should go have some beers w/ him instead.

[DcifrThs]

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You should go have some beers w/ him instead.

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been there, done that...we were discussing the aces vs. kings thing at the ameristar after i lost a big pot and was forced to call two bbs cold on the turn due to picking up the nut flush draw in a big pot...i liked his final answer and want to see if we can get a few responses before either he chimes in with his response or whatever...just a thought exercize to show what aces are worth.

-Barron

[Senor Choppy]

By folding aces, I'd be throwing away 81.4% of my win rate (TY Poker Tracker). Tossing KK would give up over 50%.

And as far as variance goes, I would imagine it would increase a decent amount as these are the two most consistenly profitable hands.

[Nightwish]

Your probability of getting AA is (6*2)/(52*51) = 0.004525. So you'll get AA roughly once every 221 hands. Let's say you're making X BB on average every time you have AA. That means folding AA will cost you X/2.21 BB every 100 hands.

Your probability of getting KK is the same as above. If you're making Y BB on average every time you have KK, that means folding KK will cost you Y/2.21 BB every 100 hands.

Now go to your PokerTracker database and plug in X and Y. I'm guessing that the result is that this strategy would turn you into a breakeven player. At least that's what happens for me.

The variance question is a lot tougher, but it's a moot point because the EV hit you're taking is huge.

[Nightwish]

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By folding aces, I'd be throwing away 81.4% of my win rate (TY Poker Tracker). Tossing KK would give up over 50%.


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Both of those numbers seem pretty high to me.

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And as far as variance goes, I would imagine it would increase a decent amount as these are the two most consistenly profitable hands.

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I would imagine the variance would actually decrease. When you win with these hands, you win a bunch. And when you lose, you lose a lot too.

[Doctor Teller]

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theory question:

if you folded AA every single time you got them at party 15/30 how much would you lose? what % of your win rate?

if you folded KK every single time, how much would you cost yourself? same as above.

finally...what would it do to your variance.

-Barron

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I forgot the numbers, but I know aces are an underdog to the rest of the table if everyone enters the pot, especially if suited and connector cards are 'a plenty on the flop.

Aces can generally take pots, but the looser style of play at Party gives players with draws more than enough implied odds to continue with their marginal draw in a 4-way pot on the river.

Mathematically I couldn't plot it out. Way too many numbers.

[Lawrence Ng]

More + juan posts eh Diablo?

[Jeffro]

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I forgot the numbers, but I know aces are an underdog to the rest of the table if everyone enters the pot, especially if suited and connector cards are 'a plenty on the flop.


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I can count on one hand the number of times I have seen everyone enter the pot on a Party 15/30 table.

[Paluka]

The best anyone could do without aces and kings at a partypoker 15/30 game is break evenish.