Should you always call with an edge?

[sirtemple]

I was recently in a HU HE tourny, and at the early stages picked up A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and raised it up. My opp called and the flop came down 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
My opp bet all-in on me. About T1400 into a T200 pot. I know he has top pair, and doubt he has an ace. (It turns out I was right) Knowing that; is it correct to call, beacuse I have 15 outs w/ 2 cards to come? I figure I'm about 55-45 favorite. I'm a slight favorite, and I'm getting slightly better than 1-1 on my call, so Math says I should call, but it doesn't feel right. To much risk on a draw perhaps, or maybe just not enough invested in the pot.

I was wondering, what is the correct move here? Does the players relative skills factor in here? Should weaker players call, and stonger players wait for better odds? Or does taking the edge, however small, make some players better?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure I'm about 55-45 favorite. I'm a slight favorite, and I'm getting slightly better than 1-1 on my call, so Math says I should call, but it doesn't feel right. To much risk on a draw perhaps...

[/ QUOTE ]

You are a favorite (about 51/52 - 49/48). Therefore, you should stop thinking of yourself as being on draw. You are not drawing. You are winning.

However, there's a very valid arguement for not risking your whole stack early in a tournament on what's essentially a 50/50 proposition.

[Whistler]

How good are you compared to your opponents?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I was wondering, what is the correct move here? Does the players relative skills factor in here? Should weaker players call, and stonger players wait for better odds? Or does taking the edge, however small, make some players better?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a ring game, you should take advantage of any edge, however small.

In a tourney, you sometimes have to pass up a small edge in order to give yourself a chance to take advantage of a bigger edge later. In this case, if you consider him to be a better player than you then you should call, if you think you are a better player then you should lean towards folding.

[whiskeytown]

exactly what I was gonna ask.

If I was up against a WCP, I'd take the coinflip.

RB

[pzhon]

The dead money in the pot is important. If this were even, then by folding you give up your rightful share of the 200 pot, 100 chips. That is a lot with only 3000 in the chip pool. You can't afford to give up 3% of the chips very often. Weigh the average future net mistakes if you fold against this mistake you are making now.

Although your read was correct in this case, you should worry about it. You don't know that you have 15 outs. Your opponent could have a heart, so that you have 14 outs. Your opponent could have AK or A7, so an ace won't help. Your opponent could have K4, so a 4 won't help. Your opponent could have a set, so you probably need to hit the flush, but might lose to a full house even if you make the flush. Your opponent could be semi-bluffing with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], in which case you are a big favorite.

[BarronVangorToth]

Tournament play is different from ring game / real life action as survival is important so you might be best to avoid 51 / 49% propositions.

However, the same isn't (always) true in life.

If someone were to offer me to flip coins, when I'm right, I get $51, when I'm wrong, I'd pay him $49, I'd flip coins with him as long as he wanted.

HOWEVER.... same edge, different stakes: $51,000 when I'm right, $49,000 when I'm wrong, and I'm not so quick to jump into the coin-flipping game, despite the edge, as randomly losing a quick quarter-million isn't my idea of a gamble worth taking, despite the edge.

Everything in context.
Always.


Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[SevenStuda]

No, especially in not in tournaments.

-Dimitri

[MikeGuz]

I don't recommend taking the draw unless you are a weaker player and are looking for a double up or bust out. Tournaments are about survival early in a tournament it just isn't worth it.

I did make an exception to this rule a few weeks ago in a $150 buy in no rebuy - but they didn't sell out the 120 seats there were a few "blind out stacks" available to early bust outs.

It't 1st hand I have the bb mp player I know well raises the $50 blind to $300 all fold to sb who calls I look at ATs and call too. Flop comes 6 8 7 - 2 of my suit. SB checks, MP all in for $2700. I think it over if I bust I can buy one of the open stacks if I win I triple on the 1st hand. I call - mp has AA, sb hit a set of 7s and I bust out but I rebuy and come in 5th. Anyway there are exceptions to rules this is one.

[dogmeat]

Re: Quote: You are a favorite (about 51/52 - 49/48). Therefore, you should stop thinking of yourself as being on draw. You are not drawing. You are winning.

Dynasty - this is so obvious it should go without saying, except I keep forgetting.............. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
Thanks for the reminder!

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]