Suited hole cards, one-suited flop....but the wrong suit

[BigJer]

Can anyone tell me the odds of holding suited cards in Hold 'em and having a one-suited flop in a suit other than the one I hold?

This is of no tactical value to me, it just annoys me that it happens so damned often - like at least once in every 5-seat sit-and-go that I play.

I'd like to find out how many times I should expect to see this; it may ease my paranoia.

[barrett]

Couple of data points:
- Any two suited cards in your hand 3.3/1 (24%)
- Three suited cards on the flop 18/1 (5.2%)

I'm not sure on the right calculation to figure out the odds of those suited cards on the flop NOT being the ones in your hand but I'm sure someone will come up with it.

[aloiz]

4 * C(13,2) / C(52,2) * 3 * C(13,3) / C(50,3) =~ .01 or about 96:1 against.

aloiz

[Lost Wages]

There are C(52,2) = 1326 starting hands. Of those, 4*C(13,2) = 312 will be suited so the probability of being dealt a suited hand is 312/1326 = 23.5%

If you hold suited cards then there are 3*C(13,3) = 858 ways that the flop can come single suited, not in your suit. There are C(50,3) = 19,600 total possible flops so it will happen about 858/19,600 = 4.38% of the time.

You should be dealt a suited hand and have the flop come single suited (0.235)*(0.0438) = 1.03% of the time or about 1 hand per hundred. Of course, you will not always be seeing the flop so once in five SnG's sounds about right.

Lost Wages

[BigJer]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, you will not always be seeing the flop so once in five SnG's sounds about right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it was at least once every time I play a 5-seat sit-n-go. I have never tracked it, but it seems to happen way too many times.

Thanks for the response.

[tubbyspencer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Of course, you will not always be seeing the flop so once in five SnG's sounds about right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it was at least once every time I play a 5-seat sit-n-go. I have never tracked it, but it seems to happen way too many times.

Thanks for the response.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you're playing suited cards too often then.

[BigJer]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you're playing suited cards too often then.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I see the point. To be honest, I only play suited cards when they are connectors, or high cards....A9up, JT, QJ, etc etc. And I am aware of the their value from different positions, and then it also depends on the cost of seeing the flop.

Thanks.