Online shark becomes live fish?

Wayfare · #1 08-13-2004, 02:37 PM

1-2 Live game, 10 handed. Villan and I both have around $350. Villan is a pimple faced but reasonable player, fairly agressive but not showing down often -- when he does show down he has not been out of line. All the dealers know him and are friendly with him, indicating that he is there a lot.

I have 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the small blind. 7 limpers and I complete for $1.

Flop ($16) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I lead at the pot for $15, get two callers, one in MP and one in the CO (villan).

Turn: ($45): K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, MP checks, villan bets $25, I raise to $80. MP folds. Villan thinks for about ten seconds and pushes all-in for ~$275 on top. Bet is to you...whats the move?

Let me tell you, I would have thought about it differently on a PP$25 table.

Benal · #2 08-13-2004, 02:46 PM

Call.. he has AK or a set

schwza · #3 08-13-2004, 03:10 PM

easy call on the river. you're behind only 78 here and a lot of other hands play this way.

muck it preflop though. even on a dream flop you're considering laying it down, which is a bad sign.

Wayfare · #4 08-13-2004, 03:28 PM

You think AK plays like this? Read the post again plz.

Cheap Shot · #5 08-13-2004, 04:02 PM

I think a set is pretty likely here. Although there were 7 limpers to you and the big blind. You just cant rule out 7/8. I do think a set is much more likely though. But given your read that the player is decent. I am sure he sees the 3 straight and knows he could be up against a straight or a set as well. With a 9 way pot I would fold and wait for a better spot. 9 way NL action, whats up with this game? sounds soft...

Utah · #6 08-13-2004, 04:10 PM

I think it is an easy fold. He is betting into extreme strength by you. Therefore, he cant believe their is a good chance you will laydown. Very unlikely he is bluffing with a flush draw or trips. Even if he is bluffing it is likely he has outs.

Benal · #7 08-13-2004, 04:14 PM

Come to think of it, AK is probably unlikely with 7 limpers and villan in the CO, he would've raised PF.

Did you have a read on the CO? Would he limp with big unsuited cards like KQ/KJ/KT? Would he play Kx suited? I still think you're ahead, as I think 78 would smooth call your CR..

JrJordan · #8 08-13-2004, 04:19 PM

I had the same thinking. If he had the stone cold nuts on a rainbow board, I imagine he would smooth call you on the turn and hit you again on the river. The reraise all in is nearly the whole pot. I would expect to see an overpair or set before nut straight. Easy call and tough luck if you have to rebuy.

Utah · #9 08-13-2004, 04:23 PM

A smooth call on the turn would simply be awful. The pot is big and a two flush is on the board. Also, if the hero is raising with a straight, the villian cant allow a free draw at the full house.

Finally, it would be very easy for the villian to think that the hero is married to his hand.

Time to push with the nut straight

Wayfare · #10 08-13-2004, 04:35 PM

I took Utah's line of thinking and mucked. Friends that I asked, all of whom are serious players (2-4/5-10 NL) are split on whether it was a good move or not. However, if I were the villan and had a set, I would play it much faster on this coordinated board. Why would the villan call the flop and not raise in order to see whether he is playing against a made hand?

I think he puts ME on a set and wants to get all in with the nuts. There was a lot of money in this pot which made the decision close, but the check-raise on the turn was for information, although I'm not sure a smooth call would have given me any better idea of exactly what he had. However, since the board is getting scarier and half the deck kills his action or makes him lose (board pairing plus the cards which make a 4-straight), I would have just gotten all my money in here with 78 like he did. No reason outthinking yourself on the river, especially in a game like this where people were loose and incredulous (they paid off big hands huge with second best).

Also, if he is indeed behind he is drawing very live no matter what he has from a set to a higher straight draw to a flush + straight draw or whatever. The sad truth is that if my thoughts were correct and he has 78, I am drawing 100% dead.

EDIT: He told the dealer afterwards that he had 78 and I made the right play, but I don't know how much of that is gamesmanship and how much of it is truth. Another day I will pull the same move with 78 and instacall the push...I don't think this call was significantly +EV (if at all) and extremely high variance.