AA all in preflop (EV question)

[DakotaKid]

So I've been reading this board on and off over the last few years. I'm a man of few words, based on my posts, but I've got a question for the group...

I was just reading another post with the old scary statistic (paraphrased): "AA is only going to win 30% of hands against a table of random hands..."

My question has to do with SNG's when you raise all in preflop with this hand. I'm used to very low calling standards (low buy-ins) in SNG's, especially early, so the random hand theory holds somewhat true. I see this as a winning bet, risk 2:7 winning percent to get paid off 9:1

The EV here seems like 9/3.5=2.57 (assuming the remote chance that EVERYONE calls with a completely average distribution). If I'm off base here, please clarify.

I also don't cling to the hope that this will every happen to anyone, so I'm asking how the EV of this push ranks against n random hands, and for that matter, if instead of average hands (50th percentile) how about 60th, 70th... percentile hands played by opponents? When is this NOT a profitable move? A pure guess is when you're more than 2 smaller pocket pairs. I'm assuming anyone who's in the pot is all in with equal stacks.

Thank you everyone for years of advice!
DakotaKid

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
When is this NOT a profitable move?

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you serious?

[DakotaKid]

That's what I was thinking. I've been trying to understand why people wouldn't want to be in here.

[VarlosZ]

It is always profitable in terms of chip-EV (or, at worst, it is even money when up against another AA). It can (very rarely) be unprofitable in terms of cash-EV on the bubble (say, when two short stacks and the overwhelming chip leader are already all-in, and you are also a short stack).


Then, there is the completely unrealistic situation in which the entire table goes all-in on the first hand:

cards -- win%
As Ac -- 22.46
Kc Kh -- 10.16
8s 8d -- 6.29
3d 3h -- 14.62
7c 6c -- 11.34
9s Jh -- 10.39
7s 2d -- 0.84
Kd Qd -- 11.86
2s Tc -- 6.25
8c Ah -- 1.23


Say that you are an exceptional player and you know that you will normally win the SNG about 20% of the time, and finish in the money about 55% of the time. In this case, I suppose being all-in w/ AA would be costing you money (especially since you will defnintely finish at least 2nd if you are the only one not to go all-in).

I wouldn't worry about it too much, though.