Is this a bad fold?

blackaces13 · #1 08-03-2004, 08:23 PM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (10 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, SB folds, UTG calls, Hero folds.

Let me have it.

Sent · #2 08-03-2004, 08:34 PM

No, it isnt a terrible fold when the top card pairs. It probably didn't help him though since he 3-bet PF. With no raise on the flop or anything it is hard to know where you are. He could be betting with position or really have a high PP or something.

-Sent

Chicanist · #3 08-03-2004, 09:36 PM

(i've lurked for a while, finally decided it's time to actually start posting to see if I'm thinking correctly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

I'd probably make this fold as well - I don't think it's particularly likely that either UTG or MP2 has a 9, but given that you're facing someone who 3-bet you and another person who cold-called 2 bets, I don't think it's incredibly likely that your overcard outs will be good, so even getting 12-1 I don't think I'd call here.

StellarWind · #4 08-04-2004, 02:06 PM

I wouldn't change anything. There are too many things that could go wrong with your six outs.

Sometimes there is a nine outstanding and you have zero outs. UTG may have paired the board with an ace (or queen) kicker, killing three outs. MP2 may have AA, KK, QQ, or AK and you have three outs or less. The Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] may make a flush.

chief444 · #5 08-04-2004, 02:23 PM

Looks ok to me. You could have anywhere from 0-6 outs. I'd average it at about 3 and fold.

Goon2 · #6 08-04-2004, 03:07 PM

On the flop, you have as many as 7 outs (three Aces, three Queens, Backdoor flush draw). At 5.7:1, you're playing it well.

The 9 on the turn is scary, because your backdoor flush chances are gone, and now you are drawing dead if someone has a set of 9s. But, I don't think anyone is holding a 9.

I don't think MP2 would 3 bet any hand that contained a 9 pre-flop, unless of course he has 99 (which would represent the height of Hero's paranoia, as even that isn't a good play). It is more likely MP2 is holding an overpair. If he has Kings, you have only 3 outs and will need to fold. If he has Jacks or Tens, you still have your 6 outs (if you do not read MP2 as having a 9). He could also have AK or even AA. My thought is to approach this had as if he has an overpair, probably AA, KK or JJ, and possibly AK. He would likely not be betting like that with AJ or AT. I think your three Queens are tainted outs and should be discounted accordingly. I like your fold. The pot isn't offering you sufficient odds.

I can only imagine what UTG is doing. He may have a flush or straight draw or a second or third pair. Or maybe he has 99 and is not having a good day. Frankly, he could have anything. My guess is that he is tossing in dead money.

I don't think it's a bad fold.

blackaces13 · #7 08-04-2004, 04:38 PM

Well, by virtue of the fact that I posted this I suppose its not hard to figure out that a Q hit the river and MP2 dragged the pot with KQ. The pot was 16BB's because UTG led the river and got raised.

At the time I was questioning myself because I folded the eventual winner of a big pot. I'm glad to hear that most of the 2+2 braintrust thinks it was a good fold. Thanks for the feedback

Goon2 · #8 08-04-2004, 04:57 PM

I'm curious, was the KQ suited?

I would also like to know what the other player had.

As far as your "brian trust" comment, let me say I just finished working the Hidden Outs section of SSH last night and have not arrived at the other post flop material in the book. In fact, I have stopped playing altogether until I have read the book and understand as much of it as I can. I was a Lee Jones disciple and am learning to play a more aggressive style. While I learn, I don't want to play.

I say all that to say not to consider goon2 to be part of the "brain trust".

Anyway, I thought your hand was probably dominated by AK, when in fact your hand dominated his. If you were heads up, maybe it would have been worth one bet to pay to see his cards given the size of the pot.

StellarWind · #9 08-04-2004, 05:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I thought your hand was probably dominated by AK, when in fact your hand dominated his. If you were heads up, maybe it would have been worth one bet to pay to see his cards given the size of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Heads up is another world of course.

The big problem 3-way is that on the rare happy day when the PFR has KQ or something and you manage to beat him unimproved, UTG shows A6 or 33 and scoops the pot. His very presence and willingness to call says you cannot expect to win very often without improving your hand.

StellarWind · #10 08-04-2004, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG may have paired the board with an ace (or queen) kicker, killing three outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oops. I should have noticed the pair of nines negates this possiblity. Aces and nines with a queen kicker would beat A6 or A2.