I folded AA. Was this the correct move?

[Foo King]

The situation:

On-line tournament, three players, UTG goes all in with about $3500. SB calls all in with about $3500. I have about $1000 in the BB holding pocket aces.

I folded, figuring to lock up second place. One of the other two would be out or severely crippled after the hand with anything other than a chop.

Correct move or not?

[lawpoker]

i'm not all that good at tournaments. but in this case, that's a tough call. KK i would fold, but AA has everyone beat, unless someone else has the other two Aces. it'd be a hard fold for me, but you're almost sure to move up in the money.

on second thought, no, i couldn't do it. doesn't matter who wins the hand, b/c you're going to be at a 7-1 chip disadvantage...hard to make up. i'da pushed. but like i said, i'm not very good.

[SDStryder]

Others might disagree...I think you should have pushed your chips to the center here...unless the payout structure for this tournament was much different than the ones I play on Party, your gain from 3rd to 2nd place wasn't as significant as the gain from 3rd to 1st place. If you call and lose, OK, 3rd place. If you sit and win, yes, you're almost guaranteed 2nd, but you're a lock not to finish 1st, as whomever wins the pot will have 7K in chips to your 1K.

By pushing, at least you've gotten all your chips in, against both opponents, with the guaranteed best hand.

I would rate this differently if there were four players remaining, but seeing as you're already in the money, why not try to win 1st place?

[mackthefork]

Wrong move in my opinion, if you go in with them you prob have 50% chance of having 3000, and if so one of them will still be crippled, not only will you have a lock on 2nd you will have a reasonable chance of winning. Extremely weak.

Regards ML

[NotMitch]

Not. The real money is Sngs is in first place.

[Cleveland Guy]

PUSH.

you have the nuts. you already placed, and your going for first aren't you? Sometimes when you go for first 3rd happens.

Also - your in the BB - so how much of your stack did you committ already? probably at least 300 or 400 of it if your this deep in. So you can triple up to about 4K - and be heads in much better shape.

Let's say you fold - now your in the SB - and half into the pot with random cards. If the guy with more chips loses - lets say he had the other guy covered by 200. So he is automaticlly in. Now you have to play the small blind with your random hand vs. his - and if he wins, he is actually ahead of you , so 2nd isn't even a guarantee if you sit out.

IMO the only time to fold a hand like AA, or KK is when you know you can fold into the money, but your already in the money.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO the only time to fold a hand like AA, or KK is when you know you can fold into the money, but your already in the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good luck with that, but no way would i ever fold AA or KK on the bubble to limp into the money. Its all going in the middle and if I crash and burn so be it.

Regards Mack

[Cleveland Guy]

Just to clearify- I'm not going to fold it every time on the bubble.

It depends on the situation, tourney payouts, stack sizes, position, etc. But I don't think I could ever fold it once I've reached the money.

[adanthar]

Push. The calculation is very simple and straight out of TPFAP.

In the Party $10 prize structure, folding guarantees you $30 (call it $32.5, just on the off chance you can come back.)

Pushing against their two hands gives you a ~25% chance at busting with $20; the 75% of the time that you win, you'll have 3K chips against the other guy's 5K and a 35% chance to win $50/65% chance to win $30 (actually, 37.5%/62.5%, but we'll round it down). Two thirds of 75% is 50%, so the total breakdown if you call is:
25%- win $50 ($12.5)
50%- win $30 ($15)
25%- win $20 ($5)

So, the EV of calling and folding are identical, *if* you feel that you are of equal skill level to your opponent and you will finish basically according to your chip count.

But your opponents suck, and you will probably finish higher than your chip sizes warrant. Therefore, push.

[Unarmed]

EV of both strategies are identical but one has a variance of zero...