How to proceed with this?

Saborion · #1 07-31-2004, 07:59 PM

I'm up against A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] board. I have Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a gutshot + backdoor flush draw. I'm trying to figure out how calculate the money I make when I hit my gutshot on the draw. And I do need some help with this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

4 times I'll turn a T for the nut straight. I'll
1: turn a non-spade T 3 times, in which case the board needs to pair for me to lose. I'll win 38 times out of 46 ~ 80 %, meaning I'll win 3*.8*(10+2+2+1) = 36 BB's.
2: turn the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 1 time. Now I'll lose if the river card is a flush or if it pairs the board. I'll win 29 times out of 46 ~ 60 %, meaning I'll win 3*.6*(10+2+2+1) = 27.

Ok, so far so good, right? Now, that means that 3 times I'll lose 20 % of the time, and 1 time I'll lose 40 % of the time. Right? How do we weigh all this?

Nottom · #2 07-31-2004, 08:44 PM

Don't forget the time when you turn the T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and river the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a big payday.

Saborion · #3 07-31-2004, 10:24 PM

I did forget that. Thanks, and, damn you! It'll give me more stuff to take into considerations. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Well, not quite true since that'll happen so infrequently that it can be neglected huh?

Nottom · #4 08-01-2004, 06:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, not quite true since that'll happen so infrequently that it can be neglected huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, if it means you will get 3 way capped action on the river it might have a noticable impact on the bottom line.

Saborion · #5 08-02-2004, 03:01 AM

Yah, and it won't be that hard to include in the calculations. I'll compate it with and without and see if it do have a noticable impact, but it should have.

Now, I just need someone to tell me how to continue on with this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]