Bluff catching with top set? NL100

[DrPublo]

Party NL100 6max ($2 BB).

Relevant stack sizes (approximate):
Me (CO): $200
SB: $325
BB: $120

I raise in the CO with black KK to $10, SB (solid, doesnt get involved in a lot of hands) calls as does BB (very loose preflop, LOVES to minraise to $4 from any position with any suited face).

Flop ($30): 7KQr

Check to me, I bet 20. Both call. I figure one has GOT to be on a broadway draw, and the other must be middle pair (only because a K is unlikely). I can't see the BB overcalling with just a Q, but then again i disrespect his play so its somewhat possible. All in all at this point I thought I was up against one pair and one draw.

Turn is an offsuit A, so JT just got there.

check to me again with $90 in the pot, I think and check it back. This I think is my biggest question in the hand. Should I check here??

River is a 9. SB leads out for $55, BB folds, I think and call.

Comments on all streets appreciated although my biggest question is on the turn. Who bets, and how much? My fear was getting all in against made broadway, especially against the SB who had me covered.

Thannks in advance.

The Doc

[umdpoker]

i would play it same way. not sure if that means its right.

[bunky9590]

Oh yeah I LOVE THE TURN CHECK!!!!!

Yeah I have to call there and expect to win a boat load of times.

That seems to be a very good money making line for me. Pot the flop, check the turn and snap off the river value bet.

Ni han buddy.

[Leo Bello]

IS JT possible for SB (solid player, don´t get involved in many pots) after a 5x BB pre-flop raise? Doesn´t seem to fit your description. Ok, but that can fit BB (we saw it didn´t on the river, but on turn u didn´t know).
If you have a set and don´t have the strenght to fire with it, you won´t make the big bucks. I would have fired in the turn to be more aggressive and not give free cards, after all they may still be drawing,and you have already made your hand. If you don´t bet there, you will never know. The only case I would have checked here was if I had the nuts and was sure I would win the hand. Maybe you don´t even need to fire the pot, half the pot may be enough to fold them or allow a reraise, in which case u could consider folding.

But after checking the turn, and seeing BB folding, I would put SB in 2 pair or even a smaller set (doesn´t seem AA nor JT) and reraise him all-in on the river. There is pretty good chance you get called, but an even greater chance of him folding right there, cause his half-pot bet, doesn´t seem all that strong.

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh yeah I LOVE THE TURN CHECK!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Really...? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Your and my styles are very similar (i.e. I also love checking the turn to induce a river bluff), but I STRONGLY disagree here, given the opponents. There is ONE hand (actually two, but nobody has AA here) that beats our Hero. There are a bunch of hands that would go to war on the turn with Hero, and a bunch more that would love a free card. I think that you give up too much by checking the turn here.

I would back this hand with my stack on any street.

Mike

[ML4L]

Hey Doc,

See my reply to bunky. You must bet the turn here. Whatever amount is normal for you. $60 seems about right. Reraise all-in if check-raised. On the river, raise all-in.

Hope it worked out...

ML4L

[DrPublo]

A few of you advocated pushing the river. I really thought about it (folding obviously not an option), but then I thought about what I would do if I turned broadway. I'd check the turn hoping to c/r a likely AK/AA or even a set, and then when my c/r whiffed I'd bet about 1/2 the pot on the river for value. So I decided its safest just to call.

I also don't know what losing hands pay me off if I push. AK or AQ probably, but I haven't gotten any indication from the villains that their hands are nearly that strong.

As for betting the turn, I agree that I dont want to give free cards but I also thought that any hand beating me already has me beat (in the sense that AT, AJ, KT, KJ etc are somewhat unlikely holding given my substantial preflop raise). Maybe it was monster-under-the-bed syndrome but two calls on the flop screamed to me that one of them had JT. I took a play I love to do at limit and checked the turn to incude a bluff on the river.

This time it works. SB tables AJs for top pair, gutshot and backdoor flush on the flop. MHIG.

Thanks for the advice guys. Next time I think I bet about 1/2 pot on the turn to make him commit to his gutshot+top pair.

The Doc

[Wayfare]

5x BB raise would seem to shut out JT from a solid player, especially at these stacks. I wouls say that you should back this with your stack, and you don't want to see any cards that make the one-card-straight possible on the turn -- I would bet the pot on the turn and call an all-in.

Best,

Dave / Wayf

[JrJordan]

You need to go back and look at your reads of these players. You mention the SB is a solid tighty. Any decent player is going to fold JT for a significant preflop raise, especially when in the small blind and out of position. It seems pretty clear that the SB wouldn't have JT.

The BB is harder to get on a hand because of his loose tendencies. The fact that he plays so many hands, makes it just as likely he hold A2s as he does JT. There are too many possibilities for him to hold. Especially with his LAGgish tendencies, I'd go to the felt with this guy anytime. That being said, lets look at your hand.

Flop: The $20 flop bet seems reasonable. You don't really want to scare them away, but there is the risk of broadway on the board. You charge them for the draw, nothing wrong here.

Turn: Okay, the A comes for JT's broadway straight. Again, there's very little chance SB has the straight because of your preflop raise, so it depends most specifically on your read of BB. Because of his LAG tricky tendencies, I don't think even a checkraise from BB means he has a straight. I'd bet out on this hand 100% of the time knowing that 90% of the time I'm ahead here. Probably make it $60-$70 for them to call.

River: The 9 is an obvious rag card, so whatever SB is betting, he had it before the river. The most likely hands here would be AK or AQ for a big 2 pair. He was worried about the set from the PF raiser, but now thinks his hand may be good due to the weak check on the turn. I would raise him to about 120, and be willing to push/call all in if need be.

[bunky9590]

Hey Mikey, yes we are similar in many respects.

I dont mind the check here but betting is fine as well. Yeah you risk the free card. With those stacks it is in the realm of possible for someone to call with JTs.

The Turn either made them or it didnt they called a 20 dollar flop bet after a PFR of 5x. Is it really too much to put them on a draw? Nah. At this point you could be way ahead or drawing to 10 outs. Can it kill your action on a river card, sure.

If I bet here and get checkraised big, I am stack committed so its push all in. If I bet big here, they may not call.

If I check , I can get some more out of them on the river.

If I were to bet here it wouldn't be more than half the pot.
Gives the 3:1 on the call.