Interesting Hand with JJ

[EvlG]

Everyone's favorite pocket pair... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Playing in 1/2 NL Live Game over the weekend. Haven't played with anyone at the table before, its been about 3 hours into the session. Reads at this point are that the table is very passive, especially preflop, and I felt they were generally not strong players.

Here is the hand:

Preflop, 1/2 NL

UTG calls, EP1 calls, folds to me in LP. I raise to $10 with JJ. SB (Villain) calls, BB calls, UTG calls, EP1 calls.

Flop ($50)

89T rainbow

Everyone checks to me, I bet $30, SB goes allin for $109 ($79 more to me). BB thinks a bit and folds reluctantly, everyone else folds to me. I have about $130 left.

I thought a long time about this one - I potentially had a lot of outs, but it was very dependent on what the guy had. Given the bet, I am most worried about these hands: JQ, 7J, 67, TT, 99, 88, T9, T8, 98 which makes straights, sets, or 2 pairs. I'm not worried about overpairs because I felt the guy would reraise me preflop.

If he had 2 pair, I have 13 outs (set, open-ended straight, and counterfeiting him by pairing the board on turn+river or pairing the card that didn't make his 2 pair) that gives me 1.08 to 1 odds, which would be an easy call. If he had a set, I have 10 outs (since the 2 pair outs are no longer good of course) for 1.6 to 1, still an easy call. HOWEVER, if he had a straight, I was in trouble, since 7J or 67 gave me 3 outs to win and 2 outs to tie (collectively 3.93 to 1) , and JQ gave me just 2 outs to tie (10.9 to 1). So of the 9 hands I fear, 6 cases are good calls with good odds, and 3 cases are disasters. I eventually decided to call, but wasn't 100% comfortable with it at the time.

What do you consider in this situation to decide to call or fold?

Looking back on it, I called because my instict told me that most of the time enough of my outs are good. Thinking about that instict, I can caluclate some odds if I assume each hand is equally likely since he is a blind. Those odds are 1/9 * 8.4% + 2/9 * 20.3% + 3/9 * 38.4% + 3/9 * 48.1% = about 34.27%, or 1.92 to 1 which makes it a good call. So in that sense, my instict was right. Is this the right way to look at it? And how could I ever possibly approximate that in the heat of the moment at the table instead of just relying on instincts?

Any thoughts, suggestions, or comments are definitely appreciated!

[SpiderMnkE]

He is a blind.. but he called a 5xBB raise... I think you can rule out J7

[schwza]

easy call.

[Huskiez]

I think you can definitely call here. There's enough dead money in there to justify one, and the only hand you're in really bad shape against is QJ.

[JrJordan]

Yikes, don't try and calculate that stuff in your head, you'll hurt yourself. Reagrding some of the possible hands you could face, I think you need to count a few of them as unlikely. You raised a significant amount preflop. Any legitimate player is not going to call with J7 or T8. Other possiblities are unlikely too, as long as the stacks aren't too deep. You're biggest worries are QJ or a set IMO. I'd be more inclined to put them on a set, as QJ is pretty unlikely to call such a 5xBB raise. That being said, against any set you have 10 outs. That turns to around 45%, or a little less than even money to call. It depends significantly on your read of a QJ, but more often than not I'd call.

Instead of trying to do caluclations in your head though, just count the number of outs. There's plenty of charts online that give pot odds for various outs, memorize those instead.

[ML4L]

Hey Evlg,

Easy call. The hand is more interesting if there is still money left. But, given that you have no reads, I think that you're being too pessimistic about his range of hands. Many players would check-raise all-in with hands like AT, J9, etc. Folding here is a disaster, IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
What do you consider in this situation to decide to call or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

You were on the right track. But, some things that you might think about include: what he thinks you have and what he thinks you'll do with it, what he might have, how deep the money is, etc. Here the key is that there isn't much money left, so he could be raising with a ton of stuff. And, since there isn't much money left, there isn't a huge penalty for calling and being wrong. You had a decent number of outs against most of the hands that beat you. All of that means easy call.

[ QUOTE ]
Looking back on it, I called because my instict told me that most of the time enough of my outs are good. Thinking about that instict, I can caluclate some odds if I assume each hand is equally likely since he is a blind. Those odds are 1/9 * 8.4% + 2/9 * 20.3% + 3/9 * 38.4% + 3/9 * 48.1% = about 34.27%, or 1.92 to 1 which makes it a good call. So in that sense, my instict was right. Is this the right way to look at it?

[/ QUOTE ]

A good thought, but there are a couple of problems with the way that you implement it. Think and see if you can figure out what those problems might be.

[ QUOTE ]
And how could I ever possibly approximate that in the heat of the moment at the table instead of just relying on instincts?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right; you can't do anything close to this at the table. Eventually, through the use of mental shortcuts and by having played thousands of hands, you develop "feel" that allows you to make guesses that are close enough to rely on.

Hope it worked out.

ML4L

[EvlG]

Thanks for the advice.

I can see why there are some problems with trying to discount my outs based on hands he could have; for one, the hands are not equally likely, as the sets are much more likely than the straights or the 2 pairs (if he was a good player) given that he called the raise as a blind. Additionally, the straight cards are very unlikely because he may not make a bet that could cause me to fold if he had the nuts or second nuts. Instead he would probably cold call or have made a smaller checkraise. At least that is what I would do, try to get the guy committed to the pot given that stacks were relatively shallow - but who knows. One painful lesson I have learned at that particular game is that without a read, it can be very dangerous to evaluate their play based on what you would do.

So looking back, that does make it an easy call since I had better pot odds than card odds for the most likely cases.

Of course he flipped up T8, and it turned out I had 13 outs. Great, only a slight underdog! Unfortunately, the turn brought an 8, leaving me with 2 outs. The river was a blank and I was beat.

Thinking about your comments, I didn't think about AT and J9 being out there but I can see why it makes sense. Some guys at this level and with stacks that shallow would play those hands that way. If I had considered that it definitely would have made me more comfortable with the call.

By the end of the session, I was pretty convinced that guy was a maniac - he once called 5xBB raise with 69s in the small blind, and then bet out on flop and river to make runner runner flush. I was just astonished at that play - if I had seen him do that earlier in the session I would have called instantly. I won't be forgetting his face soon.