Little Help -- Local 10 PLayer Tournament - Bubble Again

Pot Luck · #1 07-25-2004, 08:09 PM

I am in 4th place. Blinds are 500/1000 last hand before 1000/2000.

Big Blind (ME) 19,000T - Dealt QTo
UTG 27,000T - Folds
Button 36,000T - Folds
SB 38,000T - Completes $1000

I check.
$2000 Pot

Flop Q 7 4 Rainbow - I bet $3000

SB Raises to $6000 - I Call

Turn K - I Check - SB Goes ALL IN for $31,000 - I Call

I don't rely on my "Gut Instinct" too often and would normally fold this after the flop re-raise. SB is so tight/passive (been playing with him for nearly a year) that I think his action is pure BLUFF. He just had KQ so I don't figure he was dealt it again. I really think my QT is good here. After the Blind - Flop Bet of $3000 and call of $3000, I am left with 12,000 and the blinds are going to 1000/2000 so I am ALL IN from here anyway.

I don't know?

BigBaitsim (milo) · #2 07-25-2004, 10:33 PM

You have plenty of time left, even with blinds of 1000/2000 (although you will be close to "all-in or fold" mode after you fold this hand.

You called the SB "tight/passive." Tight/passive players don't bluff much. He raised you on the flop and again when the K came out. He has stronger cards than you.

More importantly, I must now bust your chops, you said...

[ QUOTE ]
He just had KQ so I don't figure he was dealt it again.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you cannot see the basic error of this statement, you have fallen for the one of the most basic, beginner level fallacies and have no business playing poker. THE CARDS HAVE NO MEMORY! They have no idea who you are, who your buddy is, or what they did moments ago. His having just had KQ is of no consequence whatsoever to his hand now. As punishment for making this basic error, you must now go to the closest roulette table, study the history board for "trends" and bet accordingly.

Pot Luck · #3 07-26-2004, 07:15 AM

I did as you said... there have been 8 RED in a row.... I think BLACK is DUE [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I understand your point.... as I said I don't EVER go with my "GUT". I just found myself saying.... "It just can't be" on this hand for some reason. And I have been asking myself over and over again "When have you ever seen HIM bluff?" -- Never is the answer.

The only legitimate QUESTION I asked myself before I called was do I have TIME -- or should I GAMBLE.

I picked the wrong time to gamble -- against Mr. Tight-I Never Bluff-Chip Leader.

So the thought process should have been - FOLD after the re-raise? Leaving me with 15K and the SB coming for 1K -- then 14K with blinds 1000/2000 -- I really do have time to wait for a better spot.

Pot Luck · #4 07-26-2004, 07:37 AM

He Had QQ - and beat me on every level.

Live and Learn.

Thanks Milo -- for the reminders [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Stoneii · #5 07-26-2004, 07:41 AM

i was just in the middle of typing "I presume he has QQ or the like"

Yeah - well he's now reconfirmed his handle, you'll know again. It's 1 thing making a read on a player but it's a confident player who trusts his read. You talked yourself out of believing him (I do it all too often) but we'll get there [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

G'Luck

stoneii