Moving up to $20 + $2s

[durron597]

(Apparently) Because I have been playing a lot of tourneys on Pokerroom, they have offered me a 15% Bonus for a second deposit of up to $150. If I take this offer, then my bankroll will be enough for me to start playing $20+$2s. So here I ask if my numbers so far are good enough (they are NOT statistically significant, I know) that I should make this move.

SnGs played: 21
ITM: 52.4%
ROI: 94.8%

1: 7
2: 2
3: 2
4: 2
5: 2
6: 3
7: 2
8: 0
9: 0
10: 1

Starting bankroll: $200. Current bankroll: $385; which will become $425 + whatever changes come when I get enough FPP. It would be higher except I'm net negative playing MTTs. I am positive that I am better at SnGs than I am at cash games, so I haven't played cash games at all. I haven't cashed out yet.

Moving up now seems a bit premature, but the 15% deposit bonus is making it tempting. My original plan was to move up when I hit $500 bankroll if my $10+1 ROI stayed above 75% or when I hit 100 SnGs and it was still over 40%. Should I move up or not?

[Jurollo]

You answered your own question, 21 is so far from an acceptable sample size it is ridiculous. Nice run, but no one can make any valid thoughts about your long turn profit from them.

[durron597]

I know. Can I even have any confidence on that ROI number at all? Even within 50% (40%-140% ROI) would still show that I am a winning player at this level. Also, is there any real difference in skill at the $20+2s that it is worth it to move up assuming I have the bankroll for it? Does anyone have a thread or happen to know off the top of their head how the skill level changes as the buyin does? Also, this is Pokerroom not Party or Stars, so the blind structure and player base are different, but I'd like to think that the relative skill changes are the same there as they are on Party or Stars.

Honestly, assuming that the skill level doesn't change too much at the next level, I don't see why I can't move up as long as I have the bankroll for it. Can anyone explain how to quantify the statistical significance of my current ROI?

[Jurollo]

Simply said there is none. Even the worst player could have a streak of luck and get that kind of record over that little time. You have to make the move if you feel like you want to but no one will be able give you statistical evidence that says move up or stay.

[stupidsucker]

I would say play at least 100 at the 10's and move up if your RoI is at least 35%ish IF you have a bankroll of at least $600.

If you dont want to take our advice, then at least play up to 50 at the 10's and meet us half way. Personaly I recomend anyone semi new to SnGs play at least 300 before they move up for the first time.

[durron597]

I think you guys are right; my good numbers are exciting me a little too much. Does anyone know where I can find a formula that would let me convert the number of SnGs played so far to a confidence level of the results? Everywhere I look on this board, it says "you need 100 to have any confidence, and even that isn't that good", but nowhere do I see the numbers for it.

I actually looked this up in a statistics book of mine, but everything I found in there wanted a model of the results to guess with (Binomial, Normal, etc., which Tournament results are NOT). Can anyone help?

[Stoneii]

Why not stay at the $10 level to build up the assurance you are really beating the level and not just running hot. You could always 'treat' yourself to the odd $22 game (say after every $40-$50 increase in your bankroll) but discipline yourself to step down again win lose or draw.

That way you dip your toes in the waters at $22 level but don't put pressure on the roll too much if you're not quite ready to stay there.

Impressive results so far.

G'Luck

stoneii

[durron597]

You know, that's a really good idea. I think I'm going to do just that. Thanks!

[snowbank]

You can check out the 100 sit and go challenge thread if you want. I'll bump it up for you. A lot of people threw around a lot of different suggestions about a lot of different things(all involving sit and goes). I suggest playing more sit and goes before you make a move, but it's your bankroll. You may be ready for a move up right now, but playing more will help you be safer and keep you from going broke. Just to give you an example of how short runs can fool you, through 28 sit and goes in my 100 sit and go challenge I was up about $374 I think it was. The next 72 I only made $123. The first 28 was a hot streak for me. The next 72 was a dry streak for me with plenty of bad beats. If I was not aware that poker is a long run game I may have made a potentially bad decision to move up after making almost $400 in about 8 hours. I would say keep playing at the level you are at, and keep reading posts that will help you. You may be ready to move up right now, but play a lot more to make sure. Better to make sure than to move up and say "oops" if you weren't ready, watching your bankroll fall fast and have to start all over.

[playerfl]

how much harder are the $20 than the $10 ?