Current poker boom - how long can it last?

[Clarkmeister]

Just wondering. I suppose when the fad is over, poker games will still be much better than they were 3 years ago, but not nearly as good as today. I'd guess we are either at the peak right now, or within one year of the peak. Maybe 2-3 years left until the fad is totally over and we settle in at what could be termed "the new norm" and level out. In other words, enjoy it while it lasts but I'd guess we will all need to improve to continue surviving at whatever level each of us is currently at as the games get tougher.

[Ruddiger]

I agree, but I also know there are a lot of people who are still interested in learning about and playing poker but aren't yet, if they can be brought in someway things will continue to be good for much longer.

[DcifrThs]

i've been thinking about this a lot lately and have concluded that it depends on the average rate of bankroll loss as a result of play that is so bad itmakes even the most marginal player who plays tight and decently on the flop and river into a winner. the faster the rate the sooner the plateau, imo...

so maybe a year, maybe two, maybe more but certainly not more than 5...how long has reality TV been around, and mutated, etc. etc. etc....nothing lasts forever, but at least we are in ther here and now, right?

-Barron

[Joe Tall]

Interesting conversation came up in my home game a few weeks ago.

First some history: I've been playing poker since I was kid with the same 5 guys. Then, through our teens, my brother and his friends joined. Routinely we have played every other month (as we rotate 12 guys through) for last 22 years.

Foxwoods casino has been open for 12 years. It opened the year we all turned 21, making us old enough to go. All of us have routinely traveled down to Foxwoods over this time. Losing thousands playing blackjack/craps/roulette, etc.

Yet, no one stepped into the Poker room until late last year.

How could this be?

Well, there was this 'mystique' to the poker room, this sound of chips and old men grumbling. We had a fear of it.

Now we don't.

You can draw your own conclusions, but I see no reason the boom will subside for quite some time as these dozen will never play blackjack/roulette or craps as long as there is a poker room. I'm sure my situation does not stand alone.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Cptkernow]

I dont have enough books to lend my mates/ acquaintances who in the last few months decided that they want to play poker online.

This is a combination of poker entering the zeitgiest and them observing me become quite significantly more wealth due to online poker.

This has helped some of them overcome intial sceptecism about "Gambling", and decide to get involved in the action.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess we will all need to improve to continue surviving at whatever level each of us is currently at as the games get tougher.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't help when <font color="red"> certain people </font> (AHEM!) go telling the whole world on Amazon about new books that will make them better [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] Can't anyone keep a secret around here [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

But seriously, folks. I think that we are still on the up-side of the growth curve for many reasons. I think that there is still a large untapped market that has not yet, but will, try poker, or will move up from home games to B&amp;M or internet games. Poker is apparently very hot in college these days. These players will, we hope, graduate, get jobs and try to move up.

Part of this is a variation on the idea that if you build it, they will come. As B&amp;M games become more available for various reasons, more people will play. More importantly, as the general population becomes more confident of the reliability and honest of on-line games, more will play.

And I think that in the relatively near future, the legal issue of internet gambling in this country will be addressed. The ultimate solution is predictable. The government cannot stop it, so they will attempt to regulate it and to tax it. As LBJ said, it's better to have them inside the tent peeing out, than outside peeing in. Here in Minnesota, the legislature just concluded a session in which they accomplished absolutely nothing. But the proposed laws regarding poker would have expanded the game and increased the taxes on it. Typical.

As poker grows, the marketing of the game will become more wide spread and more sophisticated, particularly if on-line is legal here. Despite what would look like market saturation, -EV games like Lotto continue to grow with good marketing. Look what has happened to slots in B&amp;Ms over the last 10-20 years, speaking of -EV and growth. I would see the same for poker.

As more and more players are attracted to the game, the obvious break-down will occur. A few will become very good, a few more will regularly make money, the majority will hover right at/below break-even, and a few will bust out and leave forever. Many of those just below break-even will continue to play, either because it is cheap entertainment, or through self-delusion about results or ability, or because they are getting better.

In short, I think that the rate of growth will slow down, but in absolute terms, the market will continue to grow for quite a while. The fishiness may peak soon, but the fish are always with us.

[David Steele]

The poker room space is just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other crummy gambling games they push in casinos.

Online, what are people going to do instead? The other gambling games all suck.

There may be less TV poker shows but other factors may keep things level or more likely just a slower growth.

D.

[mike l.]

will something come along and replace or at least compete with hold em? cause man im sick of hold em. i mean i love having all this money, but i want to play another game.

i think padoogi (or however it's spelled) is the game of the future. it's 4 card triple draw lowball. ive never played it but would like to. do they spread it online anywhere?

[Ulysses]

Here's one random datapoint. I used to watch most of the poker shows on TV. Now I'm starting to get bored of them and don't watch most of them.

[JimRivett]

The biggest change I've seen in Poker in Los Angeles seems to be the popularity of these low buy-in ($100 or $200) no limit games. The bike has just finished expanding its poker room to accomodate the extra games being spread.

I felt the games were pretty good 3 years ago, and will still be good in the future. You have to remember that poker has been played for a long time both at home and in casinos. A popular item that Sears used to sell, around the the early 1900's, via its catalogues was - poker chips.