One for you numbers geeks

[SoCalPat]

And when I use the term "geek", I mean it with the highest degree of respect.

Disclaimer: This isn't about poker, but gambling in general.

I just had a conversation with a friend of mine at work about the NCAA Tournament. He claims he read an account of a person who once correctly predicted all 63 tournament game winners.

I called BS on that one. I likened it to picking 20 out of 20 numbers in an 80-number Keno game -- nevermind that no one has ever picked 17, 18 or 19 out of 20 correctly, and that the number of Keno games played over the last 30 years dwarfs the number of brackets filled out over the same timespan.

So ... what are the odds of someone doing what my coworker friend said he read about? Is such an event equivalent to the longest of longshot Keno odds?

Anyone who can fill in the blanks here would earn my never-ending respect. Thanks.

[aloiz]

63 total games played so 1/2^63 = 1.08E-19 or roughly 9,223,372,036,854,780,000 to 1. Now the odds on each game wouldn't be exactly 50/50, (I don't think a number 16 seed has ever beaten a number 1 seed) so it wouldn't be such a long shot. However, I'm pretty sure that no one has ever had a perfect bracket before. Odds for all 20 numbers in 80 number keno would be 2.83E-19 which is about 2/5 more likely than picking all 63 games.

aloiz

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
63 total games played so 1/2^63 = 1.08E-19 or roughly 9,223,372,036,854,780,000 to 1. Now the odds on each game wouldn't be exactly 50/50, (I don't think a number 16 seed has ever beaten a number 1 seed) so it wouldn't be such a long shot. However, I'm pretty sure that no one has ever had a perfect bracket before. Odds for all 20 numbers in 80 number keno would be 2.83E-19 which is about 2/5 more likely than picking all 63 games.

aloiz

[/ QUOTE ]

For a handicapper, it would be easier to pick the 63 games as long as he can pick winners more than 50.77% of the time. 0.5077^63 > 1/C(80,20). Handicappers must pick which team will cover the spread over 52.5% just to break even.

[SumZero]

ESPN usually runs free online brackets and generally no one gets the first round correct. Usually you get 100,000+ entries and generally someone will get 16/16 on one of the days but no one gets 32/32. And in many ways that is the easier 32 to pick as the matchups are less balanced.

I think the odds are pretty strongly against anyone getting the full bracket right.

[SuitedSixes]

A few (2-5) years ago, some teenager won the ESPN Pizza Hut pool with a perfect bracket.

[Cashcow]

I have heard that it has been done. I have also heard that the odds are better to get hit by lightning twice in the same day.

[LSUfan1]

This kid should start buying powerball tickets!