When to fold the flush draw?

[Chazbot2000]

Simple question, I should know the answer to this.

Let's say you have Ax suited. Flop comes out with 2 of your suit and there's no pair on the board. What multiple of the pot does someone need to bet for it to be correct for me to fold?

[Roman]

well you have to gauge your pot odds vs implied odds. You have a one in 5 chance of catching it both on turn and river. So if you feel he will pay you off enough to make the pot odds worth it, then call.

Another option is to play aggressively and raise vs weaker opponents. This gives your hand some folding equity.

The value goes up somewhat in multiway pots.

[Chazbot2000]

Assume the opponent reads me as being on a draw and if the flush card comes down, I won't be able to extract any money. What multiple of the pot would be +EV to call?

Thanks.

[Big Jon]

4:1

Edit

Technically, 4.11:1.

[schwza]

say the pot is x and the bet is y. your opponent can see your cards (so he won't give you a free card if you miss, and he won't pay you off if you hit). there are 9 flush cards in the deck out of 47 total. at the break-even point, calling is worth $0. at the break-even point:

(9/47) * (x+y) - (38/47) * y = 0

in words, you profit (x+y) with probability 9/47 and lose y with probability 38/47.

when you solve you get that y = (9/29) * x, you should call a bet that's 9/29 of the pot, but no larger.

on the turn it would be y = (9/28) * x because there's one fewer non-flush card in the deck. this is the super pessimistic case though.

[Chazbot2000]

Thanks, this helps a lot. Boy you really do come up with a conservative result huh? Based on this math, you have 4 to the nut flush and someone bets 1/2 the pot, you should fold. I would almost always call a bet like that in practice, even with just 1 opponent.

[Leo Bello]

[ QUOTE ]

when you solve you get that y = (9/29) * x, you should call a bet that's 9/29 of the pot, but no larger.


[/ QUOTE ]

In other words and to simplify, call a bet that is maximum 1/3 of the pot. Fold to anything higher than 1/3, or if you have two more callers, you can call even a pot bet. (so, in a multiway pot you can call a higher bet.

[Leo Bello]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, this helps a lot. Boy you really do come up with a conservative result huh? Based on this math, you have 4 to the nut flush and someone bets 1/2 the pot, you should fold. I would almost always call a bet like that in practice, even with just 1 opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is what most people count on. I mean to give the better money.
Just put in numbers:
You will hit your flush once each four times in that situation.
Imagine four times the same betting.
In each hand you had to call a five dollar bet (let imagine u called to the river).
First one: u didn´t catch - u lost five dollars
Second one: u didn´t catch - u lost five dollars
Third one: u didn´t catch u lost five dollars
Fourth one: u catch your flush - u make five dollars.

Right now, u gave the guy 15 dollars and you only have guaranteed 5 dollars from him. It will all depend now if he will pay you the extra money u gave to him. If he folds seeing you caught your flush, u have lost money.

I will bet the pot against flush drawers (supposing I have a hand of course). I will win the pot 3 times, and if the flush card hits the fourth, I will just fold with proit.

Ok, that was in a very simple language and innacurate, but it is just to make clear why in the long run, the flush chasers pay you when they don´t hit. They pay three times to profit on the fourth.

[creedofhubris]

With the nut draw, you should be doing a fair amount of raising, particularly if it's headsup. Sometimes they'll concede the pot, and they'll often give you a "free" card on the turn.

Also, keep in mind that with a nut flush draw, your ace is generally also an out.

A good rule of thumb: heads-up, call or (better) raise anything significantly less than the pot with a nut flush draw. With two opponents, call just about any bet with a nut flush draw. You should get paid off enough to make this worthwhile. Smaller flush draws, and pot-sized bets, require a little more thought; you need an opponent who will pay you off big to call a pot-sized bet, and you need to be sure you're not drawing dead with a small flush draw.

Odds get worse when the board pairs. Don't bother calling with a flush draw in those cases. Either bluff at the pot if you think you can buy it, or get out -- your flush might not be good anyway, so the odds are less relevant.

[Chazbot2000]

Which incidentally brings up a pet peeve of mine. I flop a set but there are 2 of a suit on the board. I bet the pot, someone incorrectly calls and that gives the 3rd guy the correct odds to call for his draw.