Solid TAG caps the flop, what now?

[DonT77]

2 Weeks ago, 2/4 at the Monte Carlo in Vegas, mostly tourists who haven't played the game much except one guy across the table from me who is Tight/Aggressive and has not displayed any mistakes yet.

I'm dealt AJs in UTG+1 and raise. It is folded to the other decent player in CO and he calls. 2 players see the flop of
J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet, he raises, I re-raise, and he caps.

The turn is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Do you bet or check here?

[sthief09]

decent players don't usually cold-call an UTG raise in the CO when no one else has entered the pot, unless they have a huge hand like AA or KK. I'm not saying he definitely has AA or KK. so he's either not as good as you're saying or he has a monster. I'd have a tough time giving him credit for JJ, but he might be one of those people who doesn't think it's worth a 3-bet.

I'd probably lead the turn. if he raises, I wouldn't call the river if I haven't improved.

[papawawa]

If he had the bullets, why wouldn't he reraise preflop? Deception purposes? Slowplaying not likely. If he was playing "correctly", his play would only be justified with jack in the box. Or like sthief said, he's just not as good as you give him credit for.

[nepenthe]

Smells like a higher overpair, a smaller set like 88 or 44, or he's pumping a flush draw. My money is on a set, but I c/c the turn and river unless the flush gets there, in which case I'm really out of options and I fold. Make notes on him if you get to showdown, as his HU style may be different from his usual style.

[cardcounter0]

I would fold. What is the point of getting a "read" on a player as a "TAG that hasn't made a mistake", if you are going to ignore that and continue to call and give him money when he is betting like he has the nuts?

Would a mistake free TAG be capping here if he couldn't beat TPTK? You think he is chasing the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flush?

[TheGrifter]

One of the most common mistakes I see in low limit live casino play is people jamming the pot with draws when heads up. I think it's more likely that he has 4 diamonds here than an overpair.

Bet the turn.

[MoreWineII]

I think a smallish set seems likely. I seldom like check-calling, but I think it's the right play here.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
If he had the bullets, why wouldn't he reraise preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

deception to a point, but I don't mind the blinds coming along. this is actually a great spot to cold-call with AA or KK, as long as you're not against astute opponents.

[sthief09]

and what about his 5 outs? he won't be against a set often enough to justify folding the turn.

[sfer]

Monte Carlo caps the betting heads-up?

EDIT: Josh would go 5 bets here with a backdoor flush draw and two overcards. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]