SOP?

[Brian]

Party 5/10. New to table, just posted my BB. 2 limpers, SB completes, I check with T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, I fold. SOP?

-Brian

[sthief09]

I would've called, but folding in 2nd position in a 4 SB pot with a 1 card OESD and no overcard can't be that wrong, if wrong at all.

my reason for calling are because (1) you're getting 5-1, (2) you're likely to get at least one call behind you since it's such a coordinated board.

[MarkD]

Hmm... I can't imagine folding in this spot would ever be correct.

Let's hammer it out a bit to make sure I'm not out to lunch.
It's about 3-1 agaisnt you making your hand by the river (if you assume someone has the flush draw and that you only have 6 outs, which in itself is debatable). If no one calls behind you and the SB bets the turn then you are getting effective odds of (7:3). It's closer than I thought, but the numbers I used are absolute worst case scenario. If you can expect to make a bet when you hit than calling is correct.

This is way more expectation neutral than I initially thought. Without doing a super analysis I have a feeling it doesn't really matter what you do here with your one card straight draw. Having said that, I would call, because... I think calling is correct here. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I could be wrong though, I've been getting my ass handed to me for the past few days at all games. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Brian]

[ QUOTE ]
but the numbers I used are absolute worst case scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're nowhere close to worst case scenario. What if someone else has a Ten, for starters? You shouldn't be thinking in terms of worst case scenario; that's just not the way to play poker. But I saw a lot of problems with this hand.

-Brian

[MarkD]

Yes, I realized this fact about another ten being out there and my statement was a bit too strongly worded (I guess I need to be careful about that). I'm also well aware of not thinking about things in terms of worst case scenario, but if you aren't thinking about the worst case scenario then folding here is surely wrong.

[Brian]

Hi Mark,

I threw in that "don't think about worst case scenario" thing as much for me as for you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I didn't want Dynasty to come in here and call me a weak-tightie whos always thinking about worst case scenario. Although I could certainly use it sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] This has, however, been my SOP in small, unraised pots from the blinds with 1 card straights on a 2-flush board.

The main two detractions for me are that you're sometimes drawing to a split pot and that there are many redraws available. While the Flush draw isn't out there very often, if you hit, say, the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the Turn, now anyone with a Diamond has a lot of outs vs. you on the River.

-Brian

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Brian,

I play exactly as you did for the exact same reasons. The only thing I'd add is that there will be a raise you occassionally as well.

As a sidenote, if the board was JT8 two-tone with you holding 95o I would be even more inclined to fold.

GoT