KK lots of action

[Rage23]

was just about to leave the table with a nice profit and had only a few more free hands to play before logging off when i got KK....which as we know usually means i'm either winning a small amount yet has the potential to wipe out all the earnings from my session...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (10 handed)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">UTG+2 ($48.99)</font>
<font color="C00000">Hero ($64.50)</font>
<font color="C00000">MP2 ($15)</font>
MP3 ($45.60)
CO ($38.57)
Button ($24.50)
SB ($90.40)
BB ($30.75)
UTG ($15.40)
UTG+1 ($16.10)

read on UTG2: was playing 3 tables, so didn't have a great read, but i had noticed he was raising huge (20xBB) PF every once in a while, he was only called once that i saw, and ended up having 109s. yet i watched him take down some pots with premiums that he had raised with preflop as well.
no read on MP2: this was their first hand at the table

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 raises to $10</font>, Hero calls $10, MP2 (poster) calls $9, <font color="666666">5 folds</font>,50,50, UTG+1 folds.

this could mean 109s again or AA, who knows? i like my chances though...

Flop: ($31.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, MP2 calls $5 (All-In), UTG+2 calls $10.

i'm a bit surprised here... i really expected a fold after his PF bluff (my guess at least) was called by 2 players. so his call here worries me enough to ease off a little.

Turn: ($56.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, UTG+2 calls $15.

what would he be calling with????

River: ($86.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $86.25
<font color="green">Main Pot: $46.25, between UTG+2, Hero and MP2.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero ($46.25).</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: $40, between UTG+2 and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero ($40).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+2 shows Td Tc (one pair, tens).
Hero shows Kc Kh (one pair, kings).
MP2 shows Ts Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins $86.25. </font>

were the flop/turn bets too small? check on river? i guess i kept thinking in the back of my head that his 10 dollar PF raise might be AA or small set when he kept calling my bets. then again, wouldn't a LAG generally bet instead of check if he had AA or a flopped set? ...guess i just didn't have a good enough read on him

thanks!

[2283]

i'd reraise preflop and try to get him committed on the flop.

[Big Jon]

Yeah, reraise him pre-flop. If he has AA, you're going to lose a lot of money, that's just how it goes. The odds of him having AA against your KK are so remote (over 22,000:1) that it's almost not worth figuring barring a tell. Besides, you've already seen him make big preflop bets with as low as T9s.

His play post-flop smells like an overpair wanting to get it showndown cheap. Make a pot-sized bet on the Flop and on the Turn. Checking behind on the River was good considering that MP2 limped along. Who knows what he could've had at that point, you might've been paying off his runner-runner flush.

[Huskiez]

I think you can reraise this preflop as well. Often enough a huge raise preflop doesn't mean AA, but more likely a hand that the player doesn't want to play (JJ) or is just bored and wants to push everyone out of the pot.

I think on the flop and turn then you can make pot sized bets. You're more than likely ahead. Get some money into the pot.

I just checked his hand, saw he had TT. Another hand people don't feel like playing past preflop.

[TStoneMBD]

I agree with the previous posters here. Just pointing out that Big Jon's statistic is obviously incorrect as it's being used in the wrong context. The odds that he has AA vs your KK are clearly much better.

[Big Jon]

True, that statistic is obviously just for two randomly dealt hands, not two hands that are raise-worthy. Probably shouldn't have even brought it up, but it's too late to take back.

Without a solid read, it's difficult to figure the exact probability that he has pocket rockets, but since you brought it up, I figured I would take a poke at it since I need more practice at calculating this kind of stuff on the fly anyway.

I came away with 6 in 139, or 1 in 23, if he raised with the following hands (this is purely speculative, of course): T9s, J9s, Q9s, K9s, A9s, JTs, QTs, KTs, ATo, QJo, KJo, AJo, AQo, AKo, 99o, TTo, JJo, QQo, KKo, AAo.

The only point I was trying to make is that people are sometimes too afraid of Aces when they shouldn't be. This is especially true of ring games versus tournament games. Even more so online.

If you get reraised, well, then you have a decision, but that's the only time at which I would consider a fold.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of him having AA against your KK are so remote (over 22,000:1) that it's almost not worth figuring barring a tell.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why is it that 3 of my last 7 KK's have run into AA? (And been all-in preflop, and all lost.)

Your odds are not even close. If we were playing heads up, then the odds of me getting KK and you getting AA on our first hand together are 45121 to 1. However, if we are playing a full table, the odds of me getting KK and anyone at the table getting AA on the very next hand are closer to 4500 to 1.

If we say we are going to wait until I get KK, then the odds that a SPECIFIC other player has AA on that hand is 204 to 1. If we have a full table, then the odds of SOMEONE having AA the next time I get KK are about 23 to 1. It still doesn't explain my 3 out of 7, but it is at least in the realm of the possible (and it happened, so it must be).

I'm not trying to pick on you, but you should be careful about quoting odds. I'll be glad to explain how I arrived at these numbers, if anyone wants me to.

[Zag]

Now that I posted my little odds dissertation, I see that you amended your odds calculation. Sorry.

In any case, I totally agree that our hero should have raised preflop. I would need to be very deep and facing a re-re-raise before I would slow down with KK preflop.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
when i got KK....which as we know usually means i'm either winning a small amount yet has the potential to wipe out all the earnings from my session...


[/ QUOTE ]

The glass is half empty then I guess huh?

Or maybe you can win a big pot with the second best hand in the game??

Stop worring about particular sessions, as I am quite sure you wouldnt have played the hand like a nit if it was the beginning or middle of the session. You should have doubled through on that hand.

fsuplayer

[Rage23]

agreed, its a flaw i need to correct...
i think it was purely the fact that i was down about 100xBB from mostly badbeats and only a few poorly played hands, and had come back to +80xBB with solid play. nothing big, i know, and not too hard to correct hopefully