Bubble Decision

[viennagreen]

you're thinking too much about it.

blinds are 250/500... you need to push any decent hand... if you get called by a better hand, you still have a chance to win.

the game gets ugly at this point--- you need to be aggressive

[citanul]

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Yeah, also someone disconnected might discourage me as well. btw pretty impressive to have so few chips after 47 pushes in a row.

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meh, if you just lose a lot of those pushes, it's not so impressive.

citanul

[Gramps]

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but I really feel like at this stage in the tourney with the blinds as high as they are, people often freak out and will call off their chips with marginal holdings.

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I think the opposite is usually true - people will fold pretty strong holdings on the bubble, not wanting to be the first one to have to make a stand, hoping that two others get involved, allowing them "safely" into the money.

The general exception, which is somewhat present here, is when the BB is at risk of losing fold equity/becoming the clear short stack if he folds. So...generally speaking, he may loosen up his calling standards a bit, but I doubt the button or SB would (so long as you don't have some kind of "maniac image"). Maybe the BB will call you with any pair/most Aces/a few other combinations, but I'd wager that the button/SB are folding a number of hands better than yours.

If you don't push KJs here, odds are pretty good that you're the one that will have to make a stand with a shorter stack and crappier holding. 4 BB UTG on the bubble (going down to 2.5 BB in two hands if you lose your blinds) with no super-short stack is not the time to get overly passive. KJs is a pretty strong hand 4-handed, especially where 2 of the other 3 players' calling standards should be pretty tight.

If you push, get called and lose, oh well. Sh-t happens. I imagine that's exactly what happened this hand, but it doesn't make it the incorrect play in the long run.

[Jman28]

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Move allin, no question in my mind.

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