Foxwoods 10K hand

[sdplayerb]

Sweet, we are disagreeing, now we get to learn something (one or both of us, i'm not saying i am definitely right).
So we both agree that chip equity means little here and what is the most +ev move.

Not it becomes a math discussion. First what are the range of hands that the 3K is made with. I am willing to narrow it down from what I said, but I think QQ should be included, yet considered less likely than AA or KK.
(On a side note, what is really the difference here between the two? Not like if you have QQ you are worried about KK, they are practically the same.)

Now what do we consider the likelihood of his holdings? Due to the A, KK is twice as likely as AA. Even though he did have the 88, I do find it less likely to be the hand due to the 6x raise, and there is also the good chance he would not rereraise with it (as you advocate, and I used to advocate).
So I put it at AA: 25% KK: 50% QQ and 88 both at 12.5%
I do think there could be changes, but the differences were not huge (i'd be willing to email anybody my model).

Now the likelihood of his now calling an allin by Stan.
This is tough. I went with:
AA: 50% KK and QQ: 10% 88: 100%

Additionally Stan started at 14K and opp at 13K, but to be conservative I viewed Stan losing as being the same as being broke since it is almost impossible to cash if at 1K.

So if there is a call and Stan wins he has 27,025. Loses 0. If there is a fold then $18,825

I compute a 31% of there being a call.
And if there is a call, Stan wins 42% of the time. (this drops to 40% if KK and QQ fold 100%, but his EV actually goes up then).

This plays comes out to his ending up with 16,518.

I think you are better at computing the alternate play of his flat calling (obviously he is not folding here).

If he hits his flush, he can't expect to extract more than around 4K more. This is what I hate about flush draws, it is just so obvious when you hit them. Plus it could be the 2d, in which case he busts (but he doesn't know that). The best card is a non-diamond 5.
Of course his hitting his diamond or 5 happens just over 25% of the time on the turn..and he has to know he'll be shutout of trying to hit his river card if a blank comes.
This does jump to 32% if you include the A, and think it is good, which you would expect is quite likely. But still won't get much, if any, if the A hits and is good.

So by my estimates on a flat call there is 6,625 in the pot. Stan has 10,700. Let's say on average he gets another 4K if he hits (less likely if an A or diamond, but likely more if a 5, 4K is close, and I think aggressive). So 32% of the time he wins a pot of 10,625.
That works out to 14,091.

Tell me if my calcs are wrong, but i'm seeing 16,518 vs 14,091. Looks like a superior play to me.

Lesson to me is, if you flop a monster, which Stan did, you want to setup the betting so you get to put your opponent to a decision for all of his chips. He was very unlucky to be against 88, bust still is only a 2-1 dog.

Note: if i had AA: 25% KK: 50% 88: 25%, it still is 15,331.
At 1/3 accross (which is not the case), it is 14,312.

Very interested in what you and others think about that.
Of course Stan didn't have to go for a check raise in the first place, but that is another discussion, but I love his entire play.

SD

[sdplayerb]

Come on now Sossman

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Come on now Sossman

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually had a really long detailed response all typed up, but then my boss walked by and I tried to minimize the screen and accidentally closed it. ARRRGGG!

Short version:
I agree with your conclusions based on your assumptions. With that narrow range of hands, your math looks right, and there is more folding equity than I had anticipated.
However, I think you discount the underset too easily (many players would open raise preflop w/ any pair). In fact, it doesn't look like they are even in your calculation. IMO, they would only be slightly less common than 88 in that spot.

[sdplayerb]

I had the same thought also, and actually added it to my model after.
If I were to use extremely conservative #s, I can make yours work.
AA: 20% KK: 40% 88,33,22: 40%
Chance to call
AA: 50% KK: 10$ set: 100%

then it becomes 14,043 vs 14,091

1. But I do think the sets are rated too high.
2. I don't think AA can call even 50% of the time..just making that 25% and it jumps to 14,360.

So it just becomes the likelihood in your mind. I think he'd be a pretty bad player to make a 6x raise with 33 or 22 (and don't like it for 88).
Plus I do think QQ is a possibility still.

So worst case it is -48
I can argue up to about 16,500 which is over +2,000 (even up to 17,375).

So, I still think it is a pretty clear push, and great play by Stan.

Actually I would probably say reraising to around 9K may be a little better as possibly a big push could smell like it isn't a set causing AA to call..but it shouldn't have a huge effect.
I just in general on semi-bluffs more advocate making a bet that completely pot committs you making it look like you are milking the guy..but that depends on the opponent.

SD

[SossMan]

Ok...I'll buy it.

Another thing I forgot that I had in my erased response.

it was about your comment that there was no functional difference between having QQ and KK (and to a lessor degree JJ-99).
there is. QQ (and to a higher degree, JJ-99) is twice (or 3 or 4 times) more likely to have an overcard fall on the turn either a) making his hand 2nd best, b) killing his action or c) making a bad laydown
for that reason, AA/KK are typically way ahead/way behind type hands and can more easily be played slower (checking and calling or rasing smaller). The smaller the overpair, however, the more quickly you would like to end the hand on the flop.
It applies to this hand because it decreases the liklihood of QQ making this raise to 3000 (vs. flat calling and making sure the turn card doesn't look scary or pushing and ending the hand right there).

food for thought...the whole play is much closer in terms of EV than I thought, so it's probably close. When it's close, you can't really blame him for erring (maybe) on the side of aggression. Calling off with this hand would be much less forgivable.

-SM

[sdplayerb]

Cool.

I agree on the QQ vs KK in this situation..i also think there is some additional value due to possibly being against AK.
Obviously I know the difference between the two in general terms.

Andy Bloch wrote something that if you are at worst a 2-1 dog and put a guy to really tough decision/a lot of folding equity, you are usually right to make the raise.

That is why I started thinking Stan's play may be right, and knew he was before I did all the calcs, but those were interesting.