Ready to move up?

[Blarg]

Yeah, I think even a lot of people who have played a truly huge number of hands still have no idea how long the long run really is.

As I noted somewhere the other day, the difference between 4th and 3rd is huge monetarily, and so is the difference between 2nd and 1st, but both are often just a matter of losing a single coinflip. Huge variation being generated pretty much by an accident of the deal, and the number of times you're not even 4th or better in the first place, means an incredible number of games have to be played before you can start saying that luck couldn't be a significant contributor to your ROI.