Is this normal for Party?

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
flushes should happen 0.414% of the time
str8s should happen 1.52% of the time
(look it up, i think this is right http://wizardofodds.com/games/wildholdem.html)

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. That page gives you the probability for a 5 card game. Normal hold 'em is a 7 card game.

[LeftBack]

Actually, if you give seven cards, the odds are higher:

Flush: 3%
Straight: 4.6%

http://wizardofodds.com/games/pokerodd.html

[cardcounter0]

No, those are the odds of a single player getting a flush or straght with 5 cards.

Holdem uses 5 community cards, and if 10 players see the flop, 20 more cards (ten sets of 2 cards) are used to form 5 card hands. Quite a different story.

I think the flops in PartyPoker come 3-suited, or 4-suited, and the really rare 5-suited (.414% of the time) almost exactly what probability would predict.

Now can you explain why after I wash my car, if it doesn't rain, a bird almost immediately poops on it far more often than I think it should?

[bigdmajor]

fair enough, I still think that flushes and str8s happen way more than 3/4.6% at party .5/1. I'll start keeping track.

(P.S. I hope I'm wrong, I would like to trust the party program)

[sfer]

Is that the probability of being dealt a straight or a flush? If so, remember that each pot is actually several hands, so the probability is likely higher.

[cardcounter0]

There is a casino "carnival game" called Three Card Poker.

It is called a carnival game because the house edge is high, and your chances of being a long term winner are about the same as knocking over all the milk bottles at the baseball game and winning the big prize at a rigged carnival.

Each player is dealt three cards. A lot of the appeal and why people keep playing is because of the number of near misses. You get two suited and an odd card (gee, just one card away from the flush). You get suited connectors and a gapper. (Darn, almost a straight, gee one card off from the big payoff straight flush!). Some one pointed out that the probability of getting a near miss is greater than getting a complete blank. Over half the time, you are just one card away from a winner.

So flop three cards. Chances are they are two suited, or bunched for a possible 1 gapper straght, or something. Now give a bunch of people Two more cards. Lo and behold, you start seeing a bunch of flushes and straights completed. Amazing!

One time, just as it was exiting the car wash, a whole flock of pigeons flew over and bombarded my car. I mean what are the odds? My car wasn't even completely out of the car wash, and at that exact moment, all these birds overhead cut loose. I think the car wash operator had purposely trained those birds, and I don't wash my car there any more. Later that night, it rained.
[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[tardigrade]

Even that 3-4% is for 7 cards just dumped out of the deck. (Basically one player's 7-card stud hand). Odds are going to be higher than that for 10 players playing 2 cards against a shared 5. I haven't done the math yet, but it would be interesting to see it done. Since straights and flushes beat most hands, if everyone's holding on to their draws, then I think overall straights and flushes will win quite a bit. (If everyone keeps any possible draw to the end.)

[jrobb83]

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However, I do play a few weekly live games as well as my on-line play. It been my simple observation that str8s and flushes come out more often at party.

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I agree with you wholeheartedly. And I am also of the strong belief that the higher amount of straights and flushes are due to an evil party conspiracy rather than the fact that you see 3 times as many hands an hour at party than in live games.

[bigdmajor]

I see your point about the card game, but the car reference doesn’t make sense. I’m basing my conclusion about party poker based on my online play vs. my live play. So, to use your car analogy, it would be like owning two cars, a red one and a blue one. The red one gets sh!t on by birds more often than the blue one after washing them both.

[bigdmajor]

right on my man, but I don't think there is a conspiracy. I think that party simply has a poor poker program.