2 bets to me on the turn with top pair.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The free card play alone is *NOT* enough to justify raising. In fact, you generally should avoid a free card play with a weak draw. It's too expensive when it fails. The free card play is not too likely to work because you have a larger field.

Raising opens yourself up to a 3-bet, which is bad because you're compelled to see the turn by then due to the pot size being quite large.

The only other reason to raise when closing the action is that you have a strong hand or strong draw that you want to raise for value. This hand clearly does not satisfy that condition.

Raising is the worst of the three options.

Folding and calling are close together, with folding being slightly better. You don't have 6 full outs, but it's probably closer to 3 because of all the callers. You have almost the right odds to make a call for 3 outs, but you've got reverse implied odds working against you (you don't want action if you hit your hand because it probably means you're beat). These two things make folding look better than calling.

But calling here would be a "loose flop call", and not a complete disaster.

You've got to be careful with the "raise-or-fold" line, because there are lots of places it simply doesn't apply, and this is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I shouldn't have said raise or fold. I was going back and forth between here and playing and didn't take the time to elaborate. I read through the OP's post quickly and that was my initial reaction.

What I should have said is without a read it's a clear fold imho.

But I still believe that raising is better than calling although I wouldn't do either one here. This is not just a weak draw, this is a case where you are drawing nearly dead if someone has a 7. I wouldn't be raising for value. I know I don't have equity here. I wouldn't really be raising for a free card in the traditional sense of a free card, either. IF I decided for some reason to continue in the hand, I would be raising not for a free card towards my draw as much as I would be raising in an attempt to get to the showdown cheaper. Here's why:

Calling invites a bet on the turn and river. If your card comes off on the turn, you have to call again and of course you are going to be calling the river as well unless your miracle boat card comes off. If either one of these guys has a 7, you need runner runner KK or QQ to win this pot. The only possible reason for continuing in this hand would be that we are reasonably certain that neither one of these guys has a 7.

If you raise the flop and it's 3-bet, fold. It costs half a bet more than calling and without a read, you can be pretty sure that you're up against trips. For that half a bet extra on the flop, though, a few good things can happen. Maybe they both fold. You never know. .50/1 PP players do strange things. Also, we may take control of the hand and buy ourselves a couple of options on the turn. Maybe a blank comes off and it gets checked through, which is good for us. Maybe it gets checked through even though one of them has a 7 and they were hoping to checkraise the turn. Maybe a K or Q comes off and it gets checked to us.

I believe that the benefits of throwing in the extra .5 BB on the flop outweigh the benefits of getting to the turn cheap because I believe that it will save bets on the turn and possibly the river as well.

There are no reads here, so what do we think here as far as whether or not the SB has a 7? Coinflip? If we're thinking that it's 50/50 then are we going to call hoping to hit a weak draw that is guaranteed to not be good half the time even if we hit it? Whatever we decide the odds are that one of these guys is holding a 7, we need to discount our outs accordingly. It's a clear fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with your reasoning for raising the flop. For one, the free card play is overused and not very effective in small stakes games. Players will still bet the turn hands if they hit a pair: expect to be bet into if an overcard 8-J comes. Also, you want to see a free showdown, but what's the advantage of having a free showdown? There's no value in getting to showdown King, and you would probably call with a pair in this pot anyways. And call the turn after a raise is horrible. How many outs do you think you really have when someone bets the turn. Less than 3 I would say.
Check out Clarkmeister's LL Post for a good discussion of the free card (and other topics).

[deepsquat]

UTG shows 66
SB shows 33

UTG wins 13BB

WTF??

dont knows whose dumber me, utg or sb

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
But I still believe that raising is better than calling although I wouldn't do either one here. This is not just a weak draw, this is a case where you are drawing nearly dead if someone has a 7. I wouldn't be raising for value. I know I don't have equity here. I wouldn't really be raising for a free card in the traditional sense of a free card, either. IF I decided for some reason to continue in the hand, I would be raising not for a free card towards my draw as much as I would be raising in an attempt to get to the showdown cheaper.

[/ QUOTE ]

Going for a cheap showdown from the flop in a 4-handed pot is a bad idea with KQ. You don't have showdown value unless you improve, so trying to get to the showdown doesn't do anything but lose money.

[ QUOTE ]
Here's why:

Calling invites a bet on the turn and river. If your card comes off on the turn, you have to call again and of course you are going to be calling the river as well unless your miracle boat card comes off. If either one of these guys has a 7, you need runner runner KK or QQ to win this pot. The only possible reason for continuing in this hand would be that we are reasonably certain that neither one of these guys has a 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a pot that was raised preflop, "reasonably" certain could be as small as 25%. We're fighting for big pot that was built by raising preflop.

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise the flop and it's 3-bet, fold. It costs half a bet more than calling and without a read, you can be pretty sure that you're up against trips. For that half a bet extra on the flop, though, a few good things can happen. Maybe they both fold. You never know. .50/1 PP players do strange things. Also, we may take control of the hand and buy ourselves a couple of options on the turn. Maybe a blank comes off and it gets checked through, which is good for us. Maybe it gets checked through even though one of them has a 7 and they were hoping to checkraise the turn. Maybe a K or Q comes off and it gets checked to us.

I believe that the benefits of throwing in the extra .5 BB on the flop outweigh the benefits of getting to the turn cheap because I believe that it will save bets on the turn and possibly the river as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

The argument here is starting to fall apart. I wouldn't gamble in this spot on "strange things". The reason is that collectively, your opponents will probably end up playing decently. The liklihood of them all folding is basically nil even though it's entirely possible that the one of them will fold. While the initally bettor may not bet the turn, it's pretty likely that someone will bet the turn. This raise-and-a-prayer move isn't going to be a long term winner.