Is this a bad semibluff?

[SNOWBALL138]

The more I think about it, the more I like my push here. The cards that came on the flop make 2 pair VERY unlikely, and I would also be surprised to run into an overpair, K-9, or A-9 in this spot. If the board came with some face cards or was better co-ordinated, then the chance of running into 2 pair or some other hand that could call me would go up.

I think another poster commented that the only hands that are going to be calling against me in this spot are a set. According to my math, which isn't quite world class, even if both players had pocket pairs b4 the flop, the odds against either having a set are 5-1. Therefore:
(5)(225) > (.68)(705)


The reason I didn't check was the size of the pot. I don't think checking is bad. Its just that 70 percent of the time, the turn isn't going to make my hand. I don't want these 10+1 players bluffing me on the turn, because if I look them up, or raise them all-in, I will never get a fold out of them.


I think I may have said earlier than if the pot was t150 or so, then checking, or making a bet of t100 or so might be the best move. t225 is just so much to leave laying out there in the middle.

[raptor517]

yea yea, i definitely dont think pushing is a BAD play, its just possible there is a BETTER play out there. im pretty sure pushing is +ev here though. 3uo

[Texas Pete]

What are the chances that a 1/2 pot bet gets re-raised all-in, vs. them calling or folding? Especially considering that you were not re-raised pre-flop! Also you must consider the chances that someone who re-raises you all-in may well have called your all-in flop bet because they have you beat (remember, all you have is ace high at this point). Oh well. ICM it if you really want to know.

[valenzuela]

Why is this a semi-bluff???????????EDIT: NVM you will probably be an underdog if called, so yeah its a semi-bluff. But I like it

[Hotchile]

Bet the minimum. Suddenly, your hand is disguised and the pot is too small for somebody else to jam at without anything but a set which they won't do because now they want to play fancy and get you to commit yourself. This also leaves you with a bunch of turn options. You can make another minimum bet whether you hit or miss and you will still have a frozen opponent. Also, if you should happen to win this hand and show it down, the future of your tournament looks very bright because you will have control over almost every pot that you play.


Pushing certainly isn't horrible but you can control this pot with a minimum bet on the flop. If you get called, you are left with options. You don't have to leave yourself in a position where you are either going to commit yourself or have somebody else do it for you.

HC

[SNOWBALL138]

The minimum in this spot is t15. Do you actually mean bet t15?

I'm intrigued by this whole small bet approach to things. Isn't this what ferguson did at wsop2000?