JJ, Party 3/6 hand -- maniacal turn play?

[RubbleRobble]

You've done well narrowing down the hands that his PF raise indicates he could have.

A) You dont beat a single one of them.
B) For the same reason that you are trying to make a play at this pot--the size--I don't see why that wouldnt be reason enough for him to AT LEAST call you down with any of these hands.

I could easily be wrong, but it seems like yer only out here is to be catching him when he is waaaaay out of line... or of course rivering a J. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Thoughts on my thoughts?

[Tosh]

How about raising the flop instead. Given his cap preflop and flop bet he has shown you enough strength to expect you to not be raising without an ace.

[sfer]

The thing is, nothing is folding to a single raise on the flop.

[Cerril]

I've seen a lot of underpairs to the top card do exactly that on flops, but I suppose in the grand scheme it's still a tiny percentage. It happens just often enough that every time I do it with a legitimate hand I think to myself 'I should bluffraise more in this situation with underpairs'

[Tosh]

Thats not true if we are saying this guy can fold these hands and we automatically bet the turn and still saved 0.5BB.

[chio]

i often make plays like this myself, but i don't like your play here

raising for free showdown is a strong move that is predicated on 3 things:

(1) you might be ahead
i don't like your play here b/c you're basically 0% to be ahead given the action, board, and your description of TAG

(2) you have outs if you're called
you don't have many outs here if behind

(3) opponent might fold a better hand
i understand you believe this is strong enough to raise here. but your opponent knows that it's HU and that you have position, so KK/QQ might not fold. also, there's a good chance KK/QQ will at least call the turn to see if you bet the river, which you won't

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not just fold on the flop?

About the turn raise, won't utg figure a 3-bet preflop is more likely a pair than Ace something and call down with KK/QQ more often than not?

[SinCityGuy]

He folded to the turn raise.

I don't make plays like this very often, and I probably should quit making them altogether, as they probably don't show a profit in the long run. However, if the play is going to be made, raising the turn makes it a lot more believable than raising the flop.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
However, if the play is going to be made, raising the turn makes it a lot more believable than raising the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

No argument there, however, that does not make it a superior play.