River fold headsup with AA against TAG

[BreakEvenPlayer]

"If your plan is to fold an overpair to the board in a heads up pot, you need a new plan."

Not verbatim but this is classic Clarkmeister. You can't fold here.

[Redeye]

You say he's not that aggressive. If thats the case villian is probably never semi-bluff 3betting the turn. Being that tight, he probably doesn't have two pair on the flop (45, k5, and k4 don't seem likely) and probably doens't 3bet a lone K on the tun. I just think if you're calling the turn, folding the river is bad.

[mister]

I always assumed that since you need to be right here under 10% of the time, that this was an easy call. But I've let hands like this go also when it was the last spade and also paired up the top pair. Just the spade I think I pay him off, especially after putting in so many bets on the turn.

[Lmn55d]

[ QUOTE ]
Being that tight, he probably doesn't have two pair on the flop (45, k5, and k4 don't seem likely)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? I think a defense with k5s and k4s is routine for a player with these stats. I don't know his folded bb to steal numbers. I think k5o and k4o are possible too, as well as 45s. Also 44, 55, and 77. K7 is also possible.

[helpmeout]

He could easily have KQ as your raise was only a steal raise.

Its a tough fold but with that spade on the river surely he must have hit.

10BB pot with Aces HU i think I'd call here. 1 in 10 he is doing something funky.

Some people do some pretty strange things HU.

[sam h]

The problem is that the strength of your hand is so well concealed. You easily could be raising the turn for a free showdown with a small pair here, and so I couldn't put this opponent past threebetting with a king based on numbers alone. I don't think aggression factor is very reliable in making these kinds of decisions. Plus, while that is a low AF, especially for a tight PF player, it is not ridiculously low.

[tansoku]

Did you purposely not 3 bet the flop so you could raise the turn?

Does a flop 3bet help define his hand better?