"Fossilman" Raymer Gambles By Fighting Off Muggers

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Cyrus,

If your first post were worded more like this one, you would've gotten a more positive response from most people. I appreciate the kind things you said in this post, and you make good points.

However, having been the person involved, I had to make the decision. I was not motivated by protecting my money. I was making what I thought was the best decision to save my life. I felt that since they wanted to get me into my room, that they either already planned to kill me when done, or that they might make that decision after thinking over the fact that I could identify them. On the other hand, it was not clear that even if he shot me, that I would die, as long as it was out in the hallway where they would presumably run away, and medical help would arrive in short order. While I would hate to get shot, it is not at all a death penalty. Most gun shot victims live. Plus, there was still a reasonable chance that the guy wouldn't shoot me anyway.

As I've said before, there is no telling if they would've killed me had I cooperated. In the moment, I deemed the chances of that happening were greater than the chances that I died by fighting on.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[MMMMMM]

[ QUOTE ]
why MMMMMM didn't make Sklansky's top 10 list. He clearly belongs there.

later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Greg...although my math background is limited, and I do occasionally make conceptual errors, and Sklansky knows this. Also, the others on the list are really really smart. Anyway, (the occasional errors) just might add variety to my game, so it can't be all bad!

Congrats on handling yourself like a champion away from the tables too!

Later,

M

[MMMMMM]

[ QUOTE ]

I understand that Sklansky reads MMMMMM's posts on the Politics forum as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it has been incredibly stupid of me to waste so much time in dead-end arguments on the OT forum the last few years.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Great analysis Greg.

As an aside, is getting a temporary safe deposit box at the Bellagio or other clubs and casinos hard these days? If in fact you had $150K (and there have been discrepancies regarding the amount) it seems you (and others) would want to get in the habit of using a box.

Regards,

Rick

[MMMMMM]

Well Cyrus, here's my take on it:

1. We weren't there. Greg got more of an "intuitive look" at the mindset or attitude of these guys than we will ever have.

2. I just don't like the idea of being entirely at someone's mercy, especially someone who is trying to do me harm. I think Greg's chances fighting were probably at least as good as his chances letting them tie him up or whatever.

3. The muggers surely weren't expecting a fight. The surprise factor probably worked well in Greg's favor. Also, were they really prepared to set off gunshots in the hall, thus attracting more attention? Apparently not.

4. I prefer his chances fighting in the hall, catching the muggers by surprise, and ruining their plans for a quiet abduction and/or theft, a lot better than I like his chances of going along with their plans. They DID have plans, we can likely presume. And part of their plan WASN'T getting punched and kicked and yelling in the hallway attracting attention. Note too how they ended up running off, confirming the validity of this line of thinking.

5. Once, many years ago, a losing player put a gun on the table in a private game and made a remark about shooting the dealer. He was referring to me, as he thought I had been getting way too many good hands the last few sessions. I put him on a bluff and kept right on playing and dealing when it was my turn to deal. He went broke as expected. Sometimes you have to trust your reads. Now maybe that was just poor judgment in my younger days. But Greg had a read on the situation and faced danger whichever route he took, so he had to choose the path he thought best. The path he thought best, logically speaking, also conformed to his read. When your logical conclusion matches your read you'd better go with it. So he aced the decision, and fortunately it worked out OK for him.

6. Just too bad he didn't get the chance to maim one of them in the scuffle. Ah well.

[MMMMMM]

Yeah Mike, I kind of agree with you there.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I was using a box. Most nights, I had very little money on my person. At the end of the night, I would go to the box, and deposit the money. This night, I was getting up early the next day to check out, and instead of depositing, closed out my box and carried the cash and chips to my room. I won't be making that mistake again.

These guys probably saw me leaving the poker room on other nights, with a lot of cash and chips. They probably did not know that I was going across the casino to the main cage to deposit the monies there. Since the poker room cage was out of boxes, I had to use the main cage instead. Thus, they probably thought I had all those chips on me every night, and that might have been another reason to target me, in addition to my new status.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[kodonnell]

First, I am glad to see you survived your ordeal. Second, I commend you for hanging around here with all the loosers that bash on you. I am sure you have other EV+ things you could be doing than posting here. You are a gentleman and an asset to the game.

[andyfox]

Do they have guards at the Bellagio to make sure you have a room key before they allow you on the elevator at night?

Glad to hear the story has a happy ending.

[andyfox]

"it has been incredibly stupid of me to waste so much time in dead-end arguments on the OT forum the last few years."

And most of the time you're arguing with an idiot.

You know who I mean. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]