Confused about Odds in Holdem

[dellcosta]

You only need 2 bets to run with it after the flop assuming you're going all the way to the river. If you miss it on the turn, you need 4 bets in the pot on the river. But that's probably a moot point by the time you get to the river. There should already be that much in the pot already if there was any action at all prior to the river. If you're drawing for a flush, go all the way.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
You only need 2 bets to run with it after the flop assuming you're going all the way to the river. If you miss it on the turn, you need 4 bets in the pot on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is still wrong, see the other thread for the reasons why. Start reading at the post entitled "Some numbers to chew on". It amazes me that there is so much confusion about effective odds, and 2 cards to come probabilities. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Dave H.]

This one brought tears to my eyes from laughing so hard! Thank goodness I'm not THAT confused!

[deacsoft]

Use the link buddy.

[AngryCola]

Deac, he has read the effective odds section of TOP numerous times, and he knows the odds and all of that. It's just a mental block, an inability to seperate the difference between effective odds, and immediate pot odds, clearly.

I hope that link explains it better than Sklansky, or myself. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Dave H.]

Deac,

Thank you...I had read that article. AngryCola is correct...I understand pot odds. It's effective odds that are giving me a headache. Thanks again.

[Dave H.]

As I thought...got it...thanks.

[AngryCola]

Hey Dave, have you read my posts in the other thread? I think you will find them useful. I tried to send you a PM, informing you of my posts, but Im not sure if you use PMs.

Gaming mouse and I actually do agree. There was just some confusion about how it was being presented. I'll post all my future replies about this issue in that thread. Good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[dellcosta]

Ayayay. We're agreeing with each other. I read your other posts (Some numbers to chew on) and the article. All good stuff. My apologies to Dave if I insulted your intelligence. Onward and upward. Good luck.

[Dave H.]

It probably goes without saying but I still want to say that you have been very patient with me and have gone WAY out of your way to insure that I get the correct information and I thank you very much for that. I'm also certain that, given the obvious confusion about this issue, there are many others who will benefit from reading the thread, and especially your notes (AngryCola) and gm's notes (I know there are others but yours stand out). I really did assume that there were lots of folks out there who didn't understand this issue and it's obvious that my assumption is correct. Your posts cleared up that confusion for many others and it was your patience and persistence that did it.

My understanding of this concept now is as follows:

I can use probabilities to determine that I have 1.9:1 odds of making the flush BY THE RIVER assuming I have a four flush on the flop. However, to determine whether or not the effective odds are being satisfied, I have to take into consideration what the pot now holds plus any additional monies contributed by players OTHER THAN MYSELF and then divide that by any money that I estimate that I will have to contribute (including the current bet/call that I would have to make to stay in). If that quotient is greater than 1.9, I can stay to the end and basically do not have to reevaluate (assuming, of course, that my assumptions were correct about future monies). Effective odds are useful for deciding whether or not to stay to the end and are rather meaningless for a single card. For a single card, pot odds would be more useful.

It seems that in many cases, pot odds would be the way to go, because many times you’re only trying to decide whether to stay for the turn card. Fair statement?

Finally, a player COULD use only pot odds if he/she chose. In the 4 flush example on the flop, I could use the 4:1 pot odds (roughly) to see the turn card and 4:1 (roughly) to see the river if I missed on the turn. The problem with this is that I could be missing out on some profit opportunities if I chose this method and KNEW that I was going to the river.

Sound like I have it? I sure feel like I do. Did you see any mistakes in what I just stated?

Question: Seems like you would be doing a lot of estimating if you were using effective odds and there were multiple players. Are effective odds useful in that type of situation, given that your estimates could get blown away?

Related Question: What do you do when your assumptions (using effective odds) get blown away by raises, folds, etc.? Do you simply revert to pot odds at that point?

P.S. Was almost GLAD to hear that effective odds were a point of confusion for you initially! And, yes, I read your PM's. Just so much to read this morning I just now finished!