Confused about Odds in Holdem

[Dave H.]

Initially, with a four flush on the flop, I thought I needed pot odds of about 4:1 to call the next bet. I know that my odds of hitting the fifth flush card WITH TWO CARDS TO COME are about 2:1 so I don't understand whether I need 2 bets in the pot or 4 bets in the pot to make the call on the flop and on the turn or if they change with each round.

1.Do I only need 2 bets in the pot BECAUSE I KNOW I AM GOING TO SEE BOTH CARDS, i.e. I am going to the river for sure?

2. What if I miss on the turn? Do I continue to need only 2 bets in the pot or do I now need 4 bets in the pot to continue?

2nd example: I have a pocket pair with no cards on the board yet. My odds of improving my hand are 4:1 by the river.

3. Do I need at least 4 bets in the pot to call before the flop AND on the turn AND on the river? Or do the number of bets I need change after the flop and the turn and the river?

[deacsoft]

Read Theory of Poker (TOP) by Sklansky.

[Dave H.]

That's why I'm posting. I've read it and I'm confused. Any way to answer my question?

Appreciate it...

[dellcosta]

[ QUOTE ]
1.Do I only need 2 bets in the pot BECAUSE I KNOW I AM GOING TO SEE BOTH CARDS, i.e. I am going to the river for sure?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think of it this way. You have a 25% chance of finding your card on the turn, and 25% of hitting it on the river. 25%+25%=50%. Assuming you are committed to betting to the river, you have a 50% chance of completing your flush -- which is actually 1-1 odds, not 2-1. If you're holding Axs and shooting for a nut flush, all you really need is slightly more than one bet in the pot to break even. Your percentage chance (1/2) is not the same as odds.... spend some time studying that.

[ QUOTE ]
2. What if I miss on the turn? Do I continue to need only 2 bets in the pot or do I now need 4 bets in the pot to continue?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If you miss the turn, your percentage of completing your flush is now just 25%. Your odds are 3-1. If you're betting for nut flush with Axs, you need at least 3 bets in the pot.

You definitely should pick up a couple of books on probability and odds before hitting the tables -- or, better yet, come on over to my table and I'll teach you the hard way. ;-)

In addition to Sklansky, browse the Math shelf in your local bookstore. Seriously, it's worth the time. It will improve your game and you'll find other uses for understanding probabilities and odds as well. It's fun stuff.

Best of luck.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Think of it this way. You have a 25% chance of finding your card on the turn, and 25% of hitting it on the river. 25%+25%=50%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do not answers probability questions if you do not understand basic probability. The chance of of hitting at least one flush card by the river is calculated as follows:

1 - (38/47)*(37/46)=.3498, about 35%, NOT 50%

gm

[gaming_mouse]

I have a pocket pair with no cards on the board yet. My odds of improving my hand are 4:1 by the river.

You're thinking about this wrong. It is almost NEVER correct to see the river with a low pocket pair whose only value comes from the possibility of spiking a set, assuming you have missed your set on the flop.

You are about a 7.5 : 1 dog to spike your set on the flop. However, that does not mean you need 7.5 : 1 pot odds preflop. In an agressive game, even if only 4 or 5 opponents see the flop (giving only 4:1 pot odds), you will have correct implied odds, because you can count on lots of action postflop when you spike your set.

Nonetheless, your strategy is ALMOST ALWAYS to give it up if you miss on the flop. The reason is that you have only 2 outs. So your chance of hitting your set on the turn is only 2/47; same goes for the river. You will almost NEVER have correct pot (or implied) odds to make these calls correct.

HTH,
gm

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Nonetheless, your strategy is ALMOST ALWAYS to give it up if you miss on the flop. The reason is that you have only 2 outs. So your chance of hitting your set on the turn is only 2/47; same goes for the river. You will almost NEVER have correct pot (or implied) odds to make these calls correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I told him the same thing about the set question. One of my main points was that flush draws and draws to sets are apples and oranges. Flush draws will almost always be good when you hit them, and you can't say the same thing about sets. Added on to that, is the fact that most of your opportunity to spike a set is gone after the flop misses you. I do not believe in no fold'em holde'em. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[AngryCola]

Think of it this way. You have a 25% chance of finding your card on the turn, and 25% of hitting it on the river. 25%+25%=50%

[ QUOTE ]
Please do not answers probability questions if you do not understand basic probability.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, please do not confuse Dave any further. That's all he needs is to start thinking of it as 50%. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[dellcosta]

With all due respect, gamingmouse, your calculations are great, but consider the point in learning of the questioner. He's thinking "There are 13 cards in a suit and 52 cards in a deck, so I've got 25% chance of drawing a suit, right?" I was illustrating the probability in basic terms, beginning with independent events, without throwing the book at him.

That said, Dave H., gamingmouse is correct and here's why. The seemingly simple 25% probability of drawing one of your suits on each turn is affected by the fact that cards have been dealt and you can already see 4 of the suited cards. You know there are 13 suit cards. You're holding 2 of them, and you see 2 on the board, so there are 9 left unseen. Also, you know there are 52 cards in a deck, and you're looking at 5 of them, leaving a total of 47 unseen cards after the flop. Get it so far?

Ok, step back for a few minutes from gamingmouse's equation. If you need just one of the 9 cards out of the 47 unseen cards in the deck, then the probability of drawing one of them on the turn is:

9/47 = 19.1% (not 13/52 = 25%)

If you miss on the turn, there are still 9 of your cards out there, but there's only 46 cards left unseen at this point. So the probability of catching on of your cards on the river is:

9/46 = 19.6%

Following the basic (key word "basic") arithmetic, the probability of drawing one of your cards would be 38.7%. But as gamingmouse alluded with the equation he offered up, there's slightly more to it. It would probably help you to study his equation until the lightbulb goes on.

How's that gamingmouse and AngryCola? Better?

[deacsoft]

If you'd like a Lou Krieger article to help you with pot odds try this link out. A well written and very easy to understand article that is complete with charts.

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...es/?a_id=13913